A Leadership Series on Transformation

The Way Forward

Actionable Industry Trends from Futurist Jim Carroll

A Chasm is Forming

In today's volatile economy, the instinct is to "hunker down and wait."This creates a dangerous chasm, separating the innovators who invest in the future from the laggards who get left behind.This is the single greatest challenge facing business today.

Your Bridge Across the Chasm

In the face of this challenge, hesitation is not a strategy. This series, The Way Forward, is designed to be your blueprint for action—providing the clarity and concrete steps you need to stop waiting, cross the chasm, and own your future.

Guidance from a Global Futurist

For over 30 years, leaders from NASA, Disney, The World Bank, and Volvo have turned to futurist Jim Carroll to navigate disruptive change.He provides the actionable foresight needed to move from hesitation to action.

Inside the Series:
A Blueprint for Action

The Way Forward is not about abstract theory. It’s a practical user manual for the new operating system of business, providing the architecture and code you need to thrive.A new post each day, starting September 23.

Core Concepts

The Strategic Landscape

A concise overview of the top transformative trends that are fundamentally rewriting the rules of the game for every industry.

  • The future as a high-speed 'operating system'

  • AI, robotics, and intelligent automation

  • Accelerated science and mass customization

  • and more

In-Depth Analysis

Industries in Focus

A detailed voyage into the transformations reshaping the world’s most vital industries, with insights from global leadership sessions.

  • Agriculture & Food

  • Healthcare & Insurance

  • Automotive & Construction

  • and more

The Mindset for the Way Forward

This series is built on a foundation of urgent, actionable principles.These are the core mindset shifts required to stop reacting to the future and start creating it.

A New Operating System

The future used to be a distant destination we planned for; now, it’s a high-speed operating system we must run on and align to every single day.

— Futurist Jim Carroll

Create Clarity Through Action

You cannot wait for clarity; you must create it through action. Even in a storm, especially in a storm, the only viable strategy is to move forward.”

— Dancing in the Rain: How Bold Leaders Grow Stronger in Stormy Times

The Future Belongs to the Fast

Your legacy strategies are like outdated software—becoming slower, less secure, and incompatible with each passing moment of volatility. It's time for an upgrade.”

— The Way Forward Series

Jim Carroll
Your Guide to the Future

Jim Carroll isn't just an observer of the future; he's an active guide who has helped the world's most innovative organizations prepare for tomorrow. His insights are grounded in three decades of real-world experience on the front lines of disruption.

A Track Record of Foresight

With 30+ years of experience, Jim has a proven history of providing actionable strategy to C-suite leaders during periods of intense economic volatility and industry upheaval.

GLOBAL EXPERIENCE

Trusted by World-Class Innovators

His client list includes some of the world's most influential brands, including NASA, The World Bank, Pfizer, Disney, Johnson & Johnson, and the PGA of America.

ICONIC CLIENTS

Deep Industry-Specific Insight

Jim delivers customized, high-energy keynotes that translate complex trends into practical, immediate actions for industries from agriculture and healthcare to manufacturing and retail.

ACTIONABLE INSIGHT

Contact Jim

Ready to align your organization with the future? Whether you are looking to book Jim for a keynote at your next major event, arrange a strategic leadership session, or have a media inquiry, use the form below to connect. Our team will review your request and be in touch promptly to discuss the details.

Introduction

The future used to be a distant destination we planned for; now, it’s a high-speed operating system we must run on and align to every single day.” – Futurist Jim Carroll

I’m starting another series here. This one should run for about two weeks, as I take on the trends that various industries should be aligning with.I’ve gone back and examined the countless trend posts I’ve written on various industries – manufacturing, agriculture, healthcare, and more. These have been in relation to keynotes I’ve done, trends I’ve observed, or megatrends and other series I’ve written.And I’ve realized there is a lot of insight in there!Here in September 2025, the headwinds are severe and the path forward seems shrouded in fog. We’re living through one of the most volatile and unpredictable periods in recent memory. This new, high-speed ‘operating system’ of the future is defined by relentless change, and the default reaction for many is to simply shut down—to “hunker down and wait it out.” But as I outline in my new book, Dancing in the Rain: How Bold Leaders Grow Stronger in Stormy Times, you cannot wait for clarity; you must create it through action. The only viable strategy is to move forward, especially in a storm.It is with that urgent mindset that I am launching this new series, The Way Forward: A Trends and Transformation Series. Think of it as the user manual for this new operating system—a detailed, actionable roadmap for what key industries must do to navigate the chaos and own their future. I think it’s something that is needed in this particular moment. What brought this about is a conference call I’m doing today with a potential 2026 keynote; the client is in the manufacturing sector, and wants an in-depth overview of what they really need to do to align with the trends defining the future of their industry.All the discussions have led me to realize – people might be climbing out of their cone of uncertainty and are starting to move. That means it’s timely.Right now, in many industries, the headwinds are severe and the path forward seems shrouded in fog. We’re living through one of the most volatile and unpredictable periods in recent memory, where the default reaction for many is to “hunker down and wait it out.” But my entire career has been spent advising leaders that you cannot wait for clarity; you must create it through action. This is the very essence of my new book, Dancing in the Rain: How Bold Leaders Grow Stronger in Stormy Times. I know that even in a storm, especially in a storm, the only viable strategy is to move forward. It is with that urgent mindset that I am launching this new series, “The Way Forward,” to provide a detailed, actionable roadmap for what key industries must do to navigate the chaos and own their future.Look, this instinct to “hunker down” is a trap. As I’ve observed from stages around the world, this hesitation creates a dangerous chasm in our economy. In manufacturing, I call it a “barbell structure,” where large firms invest in the future while smaller ones get left behind. In agriculture, I see it as the difference between the “future-positive” farmer and the “stuck-skeptic“. This widening gap between the innovators and the laggards is the single greatest challenge facing business today.That is why I am launching this series. “The Way Forward” is not about abstract theory or distant science fiction. It’s a clear, actionable roadmap for leaders who understand that the future isn’t something to be feared, but something to be created. Over the coming weeks, we will embark on a detailed voyage into the trends and transformations reshaping the world’s most vital industries, including:Agriculture
Manufacturing
Healthcare
Insurance
Automotive
Construction
Education
Energy
Food & Consumer Products
…and many others.
For each industry, this series will provide:

  • The landscape: A concise overview of the top transformative trends from AI and robotics to accelerated science and mass customization—that are fundamentally rewriting the rules of the game.

  • the strategic roadmap: Concrete, actionable strategies that organizations of all sizes can implement to align with this new reality, with a particular focus on how small and medium-sized businesses can catch up and compete.

  • real-world examples: Insights drawn directly from my keynotes and leadership sessions with the world’s most innovative organizations, showing how these strategies are being put into practice right now.

The future belongs to those who are fast. This series is your guide to getting faster.Viewing the future as a high-speed operating system is the critical mindset shift for 2025. Your legacy strategies are like outdated software—becoming slower, less secure, and incompatible with each passing moment of volatility. They were built for a different machine, a different era. This “Way Forward” series is designed to be your upgrade path! A reboot! A cold restart! Hitting the switch and letting things power up fresh!Think of it as the essential user manual and developer kit for this new reality, providing the architecture and the code you need to not just run on this new OS, but to thrive within it. It’s time to stop running legacy systems in a world that demands a complete rewrite.Let’s begin the upgrade.

© Jim Carroll. All rights reserved.

#1 Manufacturing

The most valuable part of a modern manufacturing operation is the part you can’t see: the algorithms that optimize flow, the data that predicts failure, and the agility that makes the entire process intelligent.” – Futurist Jim Carroll

This single idea captures the profound shift underway in manufacturing.Success is no longer measured by physical output alone, but by the intelligence embedded within the entire production process. That intelligence allows for flexible manufacturing, advanced product development, sophisticated production monitoring, and more.For many Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), however, accessing this new world of intelligent manufacturing can seem daunting. With that in mind – and given the vast number of manufacturing events, conferences, and leadership meetings I’ve spoken at, it’s a good time to summarize the critical trends transforming the industry, the significant barriers faced by SMEs, real-world examples of success, and an actionable path forward to navigate the future.

The Landscape:
10 Trends Redefining the Future of Manufacturing

  • Compressed Innovation Cycles & Agility: Product lifecycles are collapsing, demanding faster innovation and time-to-market. The future belongs to organizations that are agile, flexible, and can pivot quickly, embracing “the velocity of continuous reinvention”.

  • AI-Powered Automation & Robotics: Artificial intelligence is revolutionizing the factory floor. This includes machine vision for quality control, predictive maintenance to reduce downtime, and collaborative robots (cobots) that work alongside humans to boost efficiency and safety.

  • Mass Customization & Personalization: The era of mass production is yielding to mass customization. Flexible manufacturing systems, powered by new technologies, are enabling the personalized creation of products at scale.

  • Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing): 3D printing has moved from a “far-fetched crazy idea” to a mainstream technology. It is a cornerstone of rapid prototyping and iterative design, allowing companies to go from blueprint to physical product in hours.

  • The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT): Billions of sensors are being layered throughout facilities, creating “smart factories.” This massive connectivity allows for real-time data exchange, automated communication between machines, predictive diagnostics, and enhanced supply chain tracking.

  • Digital Twin Technology: This involves creating dynamic, virtual replicas of physical products, processes, or entire factories. Continuously updated with real-time IoT data, digital twins serve as a risk-free environment to test, simulate, and optimize operations before committing physical resources.

  • Supply Chain Reinvention & Resilience: Globalization is changing, leading to “The Great Decoupling.” Companies are shifting from “just-in-time” to “just-in-case” operations, prioritizing resilience through strategies like reshoring and “friendshoring”.

  • Accelerated Materials Science: The discovery and creation of new materials are happening faster than ever. Advanced composites, nanomaterials, and smart materials are expanding the palette for manufacturers, enabling the creation of products with precisely tailored properties.

  • Advanced Skills: As manufacturing becomes more complex, the nature of work is changing. Routine manual skills are being replaced by the need for advanced capabilities in robotics, data analytics, and complex problem-solving. An estimated 1.9 million manufacturing jobs are at risk of going unfilled due to this skills gap.

  • Data-Driven Decision Making: The fusion of AI and Big Data analytics allows manufacturers to generate predictive insights for everything from quality control to supply chain optimization. Every customer choice becomes a data point that can be analyzed to identify market trends and optimize future offerings.

The Great Divide:
Why SMEs Are Facing a Crisis of Catch-Up

The modern manufacturing landscape is defined by a stark dichotomy, creating a ‘barbell economy‘ within the sector. I wrote about that in another post.

At one end are large corporations with the capital and foresight to invest heavily in advanced technologies. At the other, thinner end, are the vast majority of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), which risk being left behind. This growing chasm poses a systemic risk to the competitiveness of our entire manufacturing ecosystem.In the US, small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs), comprising over 95% of the industrial base, are lagging in technology adoption. A 2022 survey showed that while over 75% recognized smart technology’s importance, only half were willing to invest. Similarly, in Europe, where SMEs represent 99% of all registered companies, only about 5% of SMEs have engaged with AI technology. This slow adoption means SMEs are missing out on critical productivity gains, threatening their long-term viability.Three core barriers are holding them back:

  • Financial Constraints: The most cited barrier is the dual challenge of high upfront capital costs and uncertain Return on Investment (ROI). For SMEs with tight margins, investing in industrial robotics or IIoT networks can be a non-starter. This creates a vicious cycle: without investment, they can’t improve productivity to generate the capital needed for future investments. Without productivity, they can’t compete and can’t make enough money to invest. Boom.

  • The Skills and Knowledge Deficit: A profound human capital gap remains. There is a shortage of skilled workers to operate and maintain advanced systems. A 2024 report noted that 46% of US manufacturers say they lack the skilled workforce needed to compete. This extends to the executive level, where many SMEs lack the internal expertise to assess technologies and build a business case for them.

  • Strategic and Organizational Hurdles: Many SMEs lack a formal, structured approach to technology adoption. Over half of UK SME manufacturers admit that technology is not an integrated part of their future vision. This leads to ad-hoc purchases and wasted investment. Furthermore, integrating new technologies with legacy systems in factories that are, on average, 25 years old is a significant obstacle.

The primary hurdle is not just the cost of entry, but the development of an organizational capacity for continuous learning and adaptation. The barbell economy is a gap in adaptive capacity – it’s a failure in innovation – and it’s a setback with initiative.

An Actionable Playbook for SME Modernization

For SME leaders daunted by these barriers, the path forward requires initiative!I’d suggest this:1. De-Risk the Technology Leap: From Big Bets to Smart StepsThe perception of technology adoption as a single, high-risk expenditure is a significant psychological barrier. The key is to break the process into manageable, small base steps – subscribe to my ‘think big, start small, scale fast’ approach, with an emphasis on the ‘small.’

  • Adopt a phased approach: Resist the allure of “technology for technology’s sake.” A successful transformation begins with a plan. Develop a digital roadmap that identifies your core business challenges—low productivity, quality control issues, long lead times—and then prioritizes the technological solutions that directly solve those problems.

  • Do more pilot projects: Instead of a factory-wide overhaul, start small to de-risk the investment. Test a single collaborative robot on one assembly step or an IIoT sensor kit on a critical machine. This “fail fast, learn faster” methodology minimizes financial exposure while building internal expertise and confidence.

  • Start with data: A common misstep is buying data-generating equipment before having systems in place to manage the data. A more logical starting point is implementing a modern Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system to create a single source of truth for your entire operation. You need not be a huge organization to invest in an SAP or other ERP system!

2. Start Closing the Skills GapFor SMEs that cannot compete with large corporations on salary, closing the skills gap requires creative, collaborative strategies.

  • Leverage Academic and Research Partnerships: Local universities and public research institutions are invaluable resources. In Germany, for example, the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft acts as an external, on-demand R&D department for SMEs, providing direct access to world-class researchers and state-of-the-art equipment.

  • Utilize Work Placement Programs: Talk to your local community college – they might have the people you need! Hiring students for co-op terms or internships is a highly effective, low-cost strategy for injecting new skills and fresh perspectives into your organization.

  • Focus on Upskilling the Existing Workforce: Investing in the skills of current employees is critical. Move towards a model of continuous learning, starting with regular skills assessments to identify and anticipate future needs.

3. Play to Your StrengthsThe most profound transformation required is cultural. SMEs must shift from a reactive, operations-focused mindset to one that nurtures new ideas and embraces strategic innovation.

  • Lead differently: Innovation culture is driven from the top down. Leaders must dedicate a significant portion of their own time—some experts suggest 20-40%—to actively working on innovation initiatives. They must empower their teams with the autonomy to experiment.

  • Empower Small, Agile Teams: Use your small size as an advantage. Create cross-functional teams with the resources and psychological safety to experiment in a “fail fast” environment where setbacks are viewed as valuable learning opportunities.

  • Implement Lean Innovation Processes: Adopt leaner processes specifically for innovation. A simple but powerful tool is giving an innovation team a company credit card to bypass slow procurement for small-scale experiments – to let people play!

Putting Strategy into Action:
Real-World Examples of Success

I did a little bit of research using Google Gemini, and there are countless stories of successful SME innovation in the world of Factory 4.0. These strategies are not theoretical. A growing number of SMEs are successfully bridging the chasm, providing a practical blueprint for others to follow.

  • ZIMM GmbH (Austria): This SME manufacturer of spindle lift gears needed to increase production flexibility and efficiency for unmanned shifts.20 By implementing a modular manufacturing cell with a KUKA loading robot, ZIMM automated the physically demanding task of loading heavy metal parts. The outcome: The company can now run unmanned shifts, which has significantly increased its competitiveness, while employees have been relieved of heavy physical work and reassigned to more valuable tasks.20

  • Trenton Pressing (Georgia, USA): This manufacturer was struggling with a high scrap rate and an on-time delivery rate of only 60%. They partnered with the Georgia Manufacturing Extension Partnership (GAMEP) to implement a series of process improvements and technology upgrades. The outcome: Trenton Pressing dramatically reduced its scrap rate by 60% and improved on-time delivery from 60% to over 90%, setting the company up for sustained growth.

  • Rohleder (Germany): A medium-sized, family-owned textile manufacturer, Rohleder’s high-mix, low-volume production model made adopting standard automation difficult. They took a measured, strategic approach, partnering with local universities to analyze machine data and improve weaving efficiency. They also selectively integrated AI tools like ChatGPT in their sales department to improve customer communication. The outcome: The university collaboration led to a 20% increase in weaving productivity and a reduction in machine stoppages, enhancing efficiency without sacrificing the flexibility that is their core competitive advantage.

  • ZiprPrint (Edmonton, AB): Faced with the challenge that no commercial 3D printer could effectively bond soft and hard materials in a single process, this university spin-off developed its own solution. Their novel single-nozzle system uses a “zipper-like” mechanical interlocking technique that increases bonding strength by over 40%. The technology has opened up new multi-material printing possibilities, and the company is now collaborating with research centers to produce high-value products like sensor-integrated prosthetics.

  • Innovative Automation (Barrie, ON): As a provider of custom robotic solutions, this company recognized that the high capital cost of automation was a primary barrier for its own SME customers. In response, they piloted an innovative business model: instead of simply selling equipment, they actively help their clients secure the funding needed to invest in it. This approach transforms the relationship into a collaborative partnership, directly tackling a key barrier to technology adoption and enabling the modernization of their entire customer base.

It can be done – SME’s can make the investment, focus on innovation, and achieve results.

Moving Forward: From Barbell to Balanced Growth

The ‘barbell economy’ in manufacturing presents a formidable challenge, creating a deep and widening chasm between a few technologically advanced giants and a vast number of small and medium-sized enterprises.The barriers of capital, skills, and strategic capacity are real and deeply entrenched across North America and Europe.However, these obstacles are not insurmountable. It means accepting reality, focusing on innovation, understanding the trends, aligning with them, and starting to work with them. The fact is, the path forward for SMEs is not to replicate the resource-intensive models of their larger counterparts.Instead, the opportunity lies in leveraging their inherent advantage: agility. Small organizations can act faster, work faster, and adapt faster.And it also means collaborating more – stepping outside one’s own shell to access other resources. The most successful SMEs are those that recognize they cannot go it alone. By actively participating in collaborative ecosystems, SMEs can access the critical funding, talent, and expertise necessary to compete on a global scale.Bottom line? The Fourth Industrial Revolution is not a threat to be feared, but an unprecedented opportunity to redefine the rules of success and drive the next wave of innovation and economic growth.

#2 Agriculture

The farmer of the future is part biologist, part data scientist, and part roboticist—but is still 100% an optimist who plants a seed and believes in tomorrow.” – Futurist Jim Carroll

The sepia-toned image of a world-weary farmer with a pitchfork is a relic.Today’s farmers and ranchers are some of the most innovative people I know, operating at the intersection of advanced science, high technology, and profound optimism. They are astute business people who thrive on the complexity of their industry and are relentlessly focused on the opportunity that lies ahead. Albeit, they might make some odd choices at times!With that in mind, this summary is about the second type of farmer and provides a roadmap for that future-positive farmer. Let’s look at the key trends reshaping the industry, take a deeper dive into their impact, and then share an actionable playbook of ten strategies to navigate the era of acceleration and own the future of the world’s oldest—and most innovative—profession.

The Landscape:
10 Trends Redefining Agriculture

To succeed tomorrow as a farmer today, you must understand the powerful forces reshaping your world. These trends are not distant possibilities; they are active realities creating massive opportunities.

  • AI-Driven Precision Agriculture. AI analyzes data from drones, sensors, and satellites to create precise maps, allowing farmers to optimize the use of irrigation, fertilizer, and pesticides, which boosts yields while reducing costs and environmental impact.

  • Autonomous Operations & 24-Hour Farming. The future of farming is happening faster than you think, with driverless tractors and weed-zapping robots becoming a reality. This technology is transitioning us to a world of 24-hour farming, where autonomous equipment can operate around the clock. This dramatically increases efficiency and helps to mitigate the impact of labor shortages.

  • Accelerated Agricultural Science & Genomics. Agriculture is fundamentally about science, and science is accelerating at an exponential rate. Advances in genomics, nanotechnology, and bioinformatics are transforming the industry. This allows for the development of new seed varietals engineered for specific microclimates and the discovery of new uses for crops, like using soybeans as a material in car seat cushions—creating entirely new markets.

  • Hyper-Connectivity & Livestock Monitoring. We are firmly in the era of the “connected cow,” with “Fitbits for cows” providing a constant stream of data. These AI-powered sensors and rumination collars monitor livestock for health and welfare, providing early alerts for illness, optimizing breeding cycles, and even sending out calving alerts. This saves farmers time and money while improving overall herd management.

  • Vertical Farming & Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA). As the global population grows and arable land shrinks, farming is moving indoors. Vertical farms can reduce land use by up to 99% and water use by 95% while enabling year-round, 24-hour production in urban centers. This radically shortens supply chains, reduces transportation costs, and provides consumers with fresher produce.

  • Data-Driven Decision Making. The modern farm generates a massive amount of data. AI and predictive analytics can process this data to forecast crop yields, detect plant diseases from drone imagery, monitor soil quality, and provide insights on commodity market trends, helping farmers make smarter, more profitable decisions.

  • Generational Transformation. The tech-savvy “iPod generation” is taking over the family farm. These digital natives have grown up with technology and are more open to adopting new ideas and tools, from iPad-based farm management to precision ag technologies. This generational shift will ensure we see more change on the farm in the next 10 years than we have in the last 50.

  • The Rise of “Just-in-Time Knowledge”. The pace of change and scientific discovery has made it impossible for any single person to be an expert in everything. This has led to the emergence of specialized “knowledge partners,” like manure managers or data analysts, who help farmers navigate complexity. Success now comes from the ability to get the right knowledge at the right time for the right purpose.

  • Sustainability & Food Security. A core challenge is that global food production must double in the next 30 years with little new arable land available. This positions innovative and efficient growers for immense success. Furthermore, sustainability is becoming a key market differentiator, allowing producers to market products like”environmental beef” based on independently audited environmental management systems.

  • Supply Chain Disruption & E-commerce. The agricultural supply chain is being reshaped by everything from global trade volatility to new technologies like blockchain for food safety and traceability. E-commerce and social media are enabling more direct consumer-producer relationships, allowing farmers to bypass traditional middlemen, build their own brand, and capture more value.

These aren’t crazy, science-fiction-like ideas – these are real trends happening now!

A Deeper Dive: The Forces Reshaping the Farm

All of these trends involve a powerful convergence of digital, mechanical, and biological innovations. Here is a more detailed look at the foundational shifts underway.The Digital Field – Precision, AI, and Data-Driven AgricultureThe most profound shift in modern farming is the transition from managing by averages to managing by specifics.This deeper level view is provided by remote sensing from satellites and drones, which scan vast acreages to monitor crop health and identify stress long before it’s visible to the naked eye. Complementing this is the micro-level detail from on-the-ground Internet of Things (IoT) devices providing a constant stream of granular data on soil moisture, nutrient levels, and localized weather.The true transformation occurs when this data is processed by the role of AI and machine learning. Beyond prediction, AI delivers prescriptive actions: What should we do now? In California’s water-scarce Central Valley, AI-powered precision irrigation systems have achieved water savings of up to 30% without sacrificing yield. In India, the agritech startup CropIn has used AI to help farmers reduce pesticide applications by 30% while increasing yields by up to 20%.There are countless other stories like this.The Automated Farm – Robotics and the Future of LaborAs the digital revolution provides the “brains,” a parallel robotics revolution is providing the “brawn.”The fully autonomous tractor has moved from science fiction to commercial reality, capable of executing complex tasks like planting and tilling 24/7 without a human operator. Companies like John Deere now offer factory-installed “Autonomy Ready” packages, while innovators like Raven Industries offer modular systems like OMNiDRIVE. The impact is profound; one of my research articles noted an 8,000-acre farmer who reports that autonomy has not only boosted efficiency but has also profoundly improved quality of life, enabling the farm to “get our time, health, and sanity back” by running operations overnight.This technology enables a strategic shift from the “Goliath” model of ever-larger machines to a “swarm” model, where a single operator supervises a fleet of smaller, lighter autonomous robots. This reduces soil compaction and adds operational redundancy. Specialized robots are also targeting labor-intensive tasks. Robotic weeders like BoniRob use computer vision to distinguish crops from weeds and mechanically remove the latter, drastically reducing the need for herbicides and making large-scale organic farming economically viable.The Genetic Revolution – Biology as a Core CompetencyAdvancements in genomics are giving farmers an unprecedented ability to enhance the biological potential of their crops and livestock.Genomic selection has transformed breeding from an art into a science of prediction, allowing breeders to analyze an animal’s DNA at a young age to calculate its future performance. Beyond reading the genetic code, new technologies like CRISPR gene editing are about writing it.This technology is being used to create disease-resistant crops, heat-tolerant cattle, and produce with enhanced nutritional profiles and longer shelf life, building resilience directly into the genome. A landmark success story is “Sub1” rice, which was bred to tolerate flooding and now prevents the loss of an estimated four million tons of rice annually—enough to feed 30 million people!The Evolving Business of Farming – Beyond the Commodity ModelLast but not least, many farmers are realizing the path forward is not just selling crops – it’s selling value-added ‘things.’ The most successful agricultural enterprises are moving beyond the high-volume, low-margin model of pure commodity production, aka cash crops, where their future is determined by market prices and global volatility, i.e., tariffs. They are diversifying through three key avenues:

  • Value-Added Agriculture: This is the process of transforming a raw product into something new, like turning milk into artisan cheese or apples into cider. This is a direct strategy for farmers to claim a piece of the 79% of the retail food dollar that is captured in processing, marketing, and distribution.

  • Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA): By moving production indoors into vertical farms, CEA uses technologies like hydroponics and LED lighting to grow crops year-round with up to 98% less water and 99% less land. Business models range from Infarm’s in-store modular units to PlantLab’s large, centralized food factories.

  • Agritourism: This model links agriculture with tourism by offering on-farm experiences like “U-pick” operations, direct-to-consumer relationships built through the Web and social media,farm-to-table dinners, and educational workshops, creating a powerful direct-to-consumer revenue stream.

The primary hurdle is not just the cost of entry, but the development of an organizational capacity for continuous learning and adaptation. The barbell economy is a gap in adaptive capacity – it’s a failure in innovation – and it’s a setback with initiative.

Bridging the Digital Furrow: An Actionable Guide for the Modern Farm

Bring it all together, and the agricultural sector is experiencing a technological transformation as profound as the mechanical revolution that defined the last century. It ain’t your grandad’s farm! And yet, many small and medium-sized farms (SMEs), the bedrock of rural economies, are struggling to keep pace, facing a formidable set of financial, infrastructural, and educational barriers.What’s in the way? The path to adopting these transformative technologies is often blocked by a consistent set of challenges – money, skills, and often, fear!

  • Financial Hurdles: The high initial capital cost of advanced machinery like autonomous tractors or robotic weeders, combined with an unclear or long-term Return on Investment (ROI), remains a primary barrier for operators with tight margins.

  • Skills and Knowledge Gaps: The complexity of modern AgTech creates a significant skills gap. There is a shortage of workers with the expertise to operate, manage, and maintain these new systems, from data analytics to robotics maintenance.

  • Infrastructural Deficits: A lack of reliable, high-speed internet connectivity in many rural areas is a fundamental obstacle to leveraging cloud-based farm management platforms, IoT sensors, and other data-intensive technologies.

  • Data & Security Concerns: As farms become more connected, issues of data ownership, privacy, and cybersecurity become critical. Many farmers are rightly concerned about who controls their operational data and how it is being used by technology providers. Efforts by equipment providers in advanced technology have led to the ‘right-to-repair’ movement – many farmers are pretty pissed off at organizations like John Deere which have locked down smart equipment with onerous policies!

Beating the Odds: Case Studies in Agricultural Transformation

Even so, despite these barriers, “future-positive” farmers are proving that transformation is possible. I dug out a few success stories that provide a powerful blueprint; I’ve shared many more from the stage over the years.

  • The ROI of Autonomy (Betsy Rowland’s Farm): On her 8,000-acre corn and soybean farm, the deployment of autonomous tractors has done more than just boost efficiency by allowing labor to be reassigned to higher-value tasks. It has profoundly improved her quality of life, enabling the farm to run operations overnight while she sleeps, helping her “get our time, health, and sanity back.”

  • The Power of Specialized Robotics (BoniRob): To combat rising herbicide resistance and meet consumer demand for organic produce, robotic weeders like BoniRob use advanced computer vision to identify and mechanically remove weeds with precision. An Austrian farmer using a similar system reported removing 70% of weeds with zero hours of manual labor, a task that previously took 180 person-hours per hectare, making large-scale organic farming economically viable.

  • The Impact of Advanced Science (Sub1 Rice): Researchers identified a gene that conferred remarkable tolerance to flooding and, using Marker-Assisted Selection, precisely bred it into popular high-yielding rice varieties. The resulting Sub1 rice now prevents the loss of an estimated four million tons of rice annually—enough to feed 30 million people—demonstrating how targeted genetic innovation can build global resilience.

The Playbook: 10 Actionable Strategies for the Future-Positive Farmer

So what should a modern, future-oriented farmer do?Knowing the trends is not enough. The future belongs to those who act.Here is a playbook of ten actionable strategies I have covered on stage for agricultural leaders around the world.

  • Master the Data to Master the Farm: Your farm’s most valuable asset is shifting from physical inventory to information capital. Conduct a data audit to see what you’re already collecting, define the data most critical to your profitability, and start with a single, high-impact data project (like using soil sensors in one field) to prove ROI before scaling.

  • Embrace “Autonomy as a Service“: The future can seem like a big investment – and it is! De-risk the high capital cost of taking a different approach – for example, with robotics, shift your mindset from ownership to access. Explore equipment leasing, “AgTech-as-a-Service” subscription models, or hire custom work providers who have already invested in the latest autonomous equipment. Consider retrofitting existing tractors with aftermarket autonomy kits to lower the barrier to entry. Find a local kid who is into robotics – and bring them onto the farm as an apprentice!

  • Architect Your Value Chain: Move up the food chain by identifying a defensible niche for a value-added product, such as artisan cheese or specialty flour. Map out the venture, start small by selling at farmers’ markets to test demand, and leverage your farm’s unique story as a key marketing asset to build a powerful brand.

  • Leverage Genetic Insights for Competitive Advantage: The industry is surrounded by ‘agricultural coaches‘ – work with them! Find genetic consultants or breeding cooperatives to help you define your genetic goals and implement a strategic genotyping plan. Integrate this genomic data into day-to-day management decisions to accelerate the rate of genetic improvement and ensure you are investing the most resources in the animals and crops with the highest potential.

  • Build a Collaborative Ecosystem: The complexity of modern agriculture is too great to master alone. Forge strategic partnerships with academic institutions for early access to research, hire specialized consultants for targeted challenges like data management, and form peer-to-peer learning networks with other innovative farmers to shorten the learning curve.

  • Design for Resilience, Not Just Yield: View sustainability as an economic driver. Adopt practices like cover cropping and reduced tillage that improve soil health, which in turn reduces input costs and makes your operation more resilient to climate volatility. Explore circular economy principles, such as using an anaerobic digester to turn manure into a value stream (biogas and fertilizer).

  • Invest in Human Capital: Treat investment in your team’s skills with the same seriousness as investment in machinery. Conduct a skills inventory to identify gaps, budget for continuous training, and empower a “tech champion” within your team to lead the adoption of new tools. Prioritize technologies with intuitive user interfaces and strong customer support to reduce the training burden. Find the young people who get it!

  • Pilot, Prove, and Propagate: Use a disciplined, evidence-based approach to technology adoption. Start with a small-scale pilot project on a single field or group of animals. Define your success metrics upfront and rigorously track the data to prove the ROI. If the pilot is successful, use the lessons learned to inform a phased, strategic rollout across the rest of your operation.

The agricultural landscape is in the midst of its most profound transformation in a century.The future of farming is not a singular choice between technology, biology, or business strategy; success lies in their masterful integration. The modern farmer must be conversant in the language of data analytics, fluent in the principles of genetic potential, and skilled in the art of strategic enterprise. While the tools of the farmer are undergoing a radical evolution, the fundamental spirit of the profession remains constant. It is a spirit rooted in a profound optimism—the unwavering belief that investing labor, capital, and intellect into the soil today will yield a harvest tomorrow.The future-positive farmer embraces this duality. They are the data scientist analyzing satellite imagery, the roboticist dispatching autonomous machines, and the biologist selecting a seed with genetically encoded resilience.But at their core, they are still the optimist who, in deploying that seed, places a fundamental bet on the future. It is this potent combination of high-tech innovation and timeless optimism that will not only secure the future of the individual farm but will cultivate the future of the global food system itself.

#3 Energy

The power plant of the past was a smokestack on the horizon. The power plant of the future is the solar panel on your roof, the battery in your garage, and the intelligent software that connects them all.” – Futurist Jim Carroll

This simple observation captures the most profound transformation the energy industry has undergone in a century.Think about it: for decades, the energy and utility model has been simple: massive, centralized power stations push electricity in one direction to passive consumers. That era is decisively ending. We are witnessing a fundamental shift from a one-way delivery system to a multi-directional energy infrastructure, creating a stark divide between the incumbent organizations tied to the old grid and the agile innovators building the new one.A lot of this has to do with technologies and ideas that are caught smack-dab in the middle of the craziness of the culture wars of 2025 – solar, renewables, batteries, and electric vehicles – but successful people take the long-term view, align with reality, know that science is real, and the disruptive trends always overcome short-term craziness.With that in mind, here are the key trends reshaping the energy and utility industry, the significant barriers to transformation, a playbook of actionable strategies, and real-world case studies of organizations navigating this new landscape.

The Landscape:
10 Trends Redefining Energy

The future of energy is arriving faster than you think. These are the powerful currents already reshaping ou

  • the electrification revolution. The massive shift from carbon combustion to electric power is transforming not just the grid, but transportation and infrastructure.

  • accelerating renewables & grid parity. Renewables like solar and wind are now the cheapest source for new power generation in most markets. In 2023, 81% of all new renewable capacity added worldwide generated electricity more cheaply than the most economical fossil fuel options.

  • the battery storage disruption. Batteries are the “keystone” binding the decarbonization of the transportation and power sectors. Costs have fallen dramatically, making both affordable mass-market EVs and large-scale grid storage economically viable. Like, I wrote in a post many years ago, ‘batteries are the future of just about everything.’

  • energy decentralization & microgrids. Energy is now being generated, stored, and managed closer to where it’s consumed, giving rise to the “prosumer“—an active participant who both produces and consumes energy. This is leading to the emergence of local, resilient community microgrids.

  • the rise of the “smart grid” & AI. We are embedding intelligence into the network. Smart meters, IoT sensors, and AI-driven analytics are creating a responsive, “aware” grid where electricity and data flow in both directions, allowing for predictive maintenance and real-time load balancing.

  • vehicle-to-grid (V2G) integration. Electric vehicles are evolving from just being modes of transportation into mobile batteries that can provide critical storage for homes and stability services back to the grid.

  • business model disruption. The old model of simply selling kilowatt-hours is becoming obsolete. New models like “Energy-as-a-Service (EaaS),” platform orchestration, and the “un-utility” concept are emerging.

  • the circular economy for energy. As the energy transition accelerates, a new challenge and opportunity is emerging: what to do with aging assets. The focus on battery recycling and repurposing—giving EV batteries a “second life“—is creating a new, multi-billion dollar circular industry.

  • the AI-driven demand shift. The massive, escalating energy demand from data centers and AI infrastructure is placing unprecedented strain on aging grid systems and reshaping the landscape of power consumption.

  • climate-positive technologies. Innovation is moving beyond simply reducing harm (net-zero) to actively enhancing ecological systems. Technologies like green hydrogen production and carbon-negative concrete are creating pathways to generate both environmental benefits and new economic value.

These trends are real, significant – and continue to emerge at breakneck speed on a global basis, despite the efforts of some nations to turn their back on them.

Bridging the Grid Divide: An Actionable Guide for the New Energy Economy

Unlike most other industries, where big organizations are moving forward and small ones are not, the reverse is happening in this sector!At one end are the large, incumbent utilities grappling with the immense challenge of modernization. At the other, much more agile end are the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), community-led cooperatives, and innovative startups that are pioneering the new energy future. Even so, while large players are constrained by aging infrastructure and regulatory inertia, smaller entities face their own significant barriers, from high capital costs to a lack of access to markets.What are the barriers?

  • high capital costs and investment lag: The most significant barrier for SMEs and community projects is the high upfront cost of energy infrastructure. While the cost of generating renewable energy has plummeted, the associated investments in grid-scale batteries, smart grid technology, and modernized distribution systems remain substantial.

  • regulatory inertia: The existing regulatory framework was designed for a 20th-century grid and often creates significant hurdles for 21st-century innovations. New business models like community microgrids, peer-to-peer energy trading, and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) services frequently clash with outdated rules governing grid access, energy tariffs, and data sharing. This slow pace of regulatory reform can make it difficult for innovators to bring new solutions to market.

  • aging and inadequate infrastructure: Smaller players do not operate in a vacuum; they must connect to the existing grid. This infrastructure is often old and ill-equipped to handle the dynamic, two-way flow of power from thousands of distributed energy resources (DERs) like rooftop solar and EV batteries.

  • skills gap and technical complexity: The new energy economy requires a new set of skills. There is a growing shortage of workers with expertise in data science, cybersecurity, and the complex software systems that manage a smart grid. SMEs and community groups often lack the in-house technical expertise to design, implement, and manage advanced energy systems.

  • cybersecurity risks: As the grid becomes a hyper-connected network of millions of devices, it becomes a much larger target for cyberattacks. While this is a challenge for all players, SMEs and community projects may lack the resources and expertise to implement the robust cybersecurity measures necessary to protect their assets and the grid to which they are connected.

  • culture wars: Simply put, as various regions turn their backs on science and technology, local utilities suffer as a result, finding themselves in the situation of having to align with the future with continuously aging and outdated infrastructure.

Beating the Odds:
Case Studies in SME and Community Energy Innovation

Despite these formidable barriers, a growing number of smaller, agile organizations are successfully navigating the energy transition. Their stories provide a powerful blueprint for how to overcome systemic challenges.

  • the community-owned grid: Feldheim, Germany: A small village in Brandenburg, Germany, Feldheim is a pioneering example of a community-driven approach to energy independence. The local utility company refused to lease the local grid to the community, creating a major obstacle to their goal of self-sufficiency. In response, the community partnered with a local developer to build its own independent electricity and district heating grids, financed by EU support and a partnership of local households. The technology mix is diverse, including a 74 MW wind farm, a biogas plant fueled by local agricultural waste, and a solar park. The Outcome: Feldheim achieved 100% energy self-sufficiency, and residents enjoy energy prices about a third lower than the national average. The project created local jobs and now generates significant revenue by selling 99% of its wind power back to the national grid.

  • the startup-driven circular economy: Evyon (Norway): Founded in 2020, this Oslo-based startup has a mission to give electric vehicle (EV) batteries a second life. The rapid growth of EVs is creating a future wave of millions of used batteries that, while no longer suitable for automotive use, often retain 70% of their storage capacity. Evyon developed a proprietary platform to repurpose these used battery modules into certified, modular energy storage systems for renewable energy applications. The Outcome: In just a few years, Evyon has deployed nearly 1,000 second-life battery modules across 25 projects in six countries, preventing 50 tonnes of battery waste and avoiding 1,000 tonnes of CO₂ emissions. Their innovative model earned them a win in a major industry challenge, securing a pilot project to scale their systems across Europe.

  • the residential V2G power plant: Sunrun, BGE & Ford (Maryland, USA): A pilot program launched in 2024 in Baltimore represents America’s first residential Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) distributed power plant. As electricity demand peaks in the evening, utilities often fire up expensive “peaker plants,” while many EVs sit parked with fully charged batteries. This pilot, a partnership between solar installer Sunrun, utility BGE, and Ford, uses the bidirectional charging capability of the Ford F-150 Lightning to allow the utility to draw power from the trucks’ batteries during peak demand hours to help stabilize the grid. The Outcome: The project serves as a crucial proof-of-concept for the technology and business model. Participants can earn money by sending energy back to the grid, adding a new value stream to EV ownership, while the utility demonstrates how a fleet of EVs can act as a distributed power plant, reducing strain on the grid.

These are but a few stories – given the nature of local energy microgrids, there are tens of thousands of similar case studies.

The Way Forward

Even so, despite these barriers, “future-positive” farmers are proving that transformation is possible. I dug out a few success stories that provide a powerful blueprint; I’ve shared many more from the stage over the years.

  • de-risk innovation with pilot projects & regulatory sandboxes: Instead of attempting a system-wide overhaul, start with a manageable pilot project to test a new technology or business model. Many governments are also establishing “regulatory sandboxes” that allow innovators to test new products with temporary relief from certain rules, which is ideal for trialing new business models like peer-to-peer energy trading.

  • reinvent the business model beyond the kilowatt-hour: The old model of simply selling electricity is becoming obsolete. Smaller players can outmaneuver incumbents by offering innovative, service-oriented business models. Embrace “Energy-as-a-Service” (EaaS), where a provider installs, owns, and operates energy assets on a customer’s property, and the customer pays a recurring fee for the service with no upfront capital cost. Alternatively, become a “Platform Orchestrator” for peer-to-peer (P2P) trading platforms like those from PowerLedger, allowing individuals to buy and sell excess solar power directly.

  • leverage the power of the cooperative: For community-scale projects, the cooperative model is a powerful tool. As demonstrated in Feldheim, Germany, pooling community capital can finance significant renewable energy projects. Partnering with municipalities is also a key strategy, as local governments can provide access to land and act as an “anchor tenant” by agreeing to purchase a portion of the energy produced.

  • master alternative financing and ownership models: Access renewable energy without massive upfront investment. Utilize Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), where a developer installs and operates a renewable energy system on a business’s property, and the business agrees to purchase the power at a fixed, lower rate. For businesses without suitable roof space, “Community Solar” projects allow multiple customers to subscribe to a large, off-site solar farm and receive credits on their electricity bills.

  • build a collaborative ecosystem: Success requires forging strategic partnerships to access capital, technology, and expertise. Collaborate with technology providers, like Evyon’s partnership with a major automaker, to de-risk development. Engage with universities for access to state-of-the-art research and a pipeline of skilled talent, and partner with community colleges to develop training programs for the new workforce the clean energy economy requires.

The energy sector is in the midst of a once-in-a-century transformation. The transition to a clean, decentralized, and intelligent grid is not a question of ‘if‘ but ‘how fast.’The trends are undeniable, driven by the powerful and self-reinforcing forces of economics and technological innovation. For leaders in the industry, the choice is stark: actively architect this new energy future, or risk becoming a stranded asset of the past.

#4 Healthcare

Yesterday’s medical breakthrough was a new drug. Tomorrow’s breakthrough is the intelligent algorithm that designs the drug, the connected device that delivers it, and the data stream that confirms it worked.” – Futurist Jim Carroll

This single idea captures the profound shift underway in healthcare.Success is no longer measured by a single intervention, but by the intelligence of the entire system of care. It’s a big undertaking, but one full of opportunity. Over the years, I’ve keynoted dozens of healthcare conferences, leadership meetings, and events, and have been writing on the topic extensively. Heck, in 1997, I released a book that predicted much of today’s landscape called Good Health Online, not to forget that I predicted today’s healthcare reality crisis – almost exactly as it is unfolding now – back in 2017.Let’s dig in.

The Landscape:
10 Trends Redefining Healthcare

If I look back at the topics I’ve covered, it’s clear that the future of healthcare is being redefined at blinding speed. These are the 10 powerful trends creating both unprecedented challenges and massive opportunities.

  • The shift to preventative medicine: The entire system is pivoting from a model that fixes people after they’re sick” to one of preventative, diagnostic medicine, driven by the plummeting cost of genomic science.

  • The acceleration of medical science: Medical knowledge is now doubling in months, not years, leading to a furious pace of discovery in areas like gene therapy, regenerative medicine, and biomaterials.

  • Bio-connectivity & the virtualization of care: The hospital as we know it is disappearing, extending its reach into the community and the home through a new generation of intelligent, Internet-connected medical devices.

  • The rise of the empowered, connected patient: With wearable devices and real-time data, individuals are becoming active participants in their own care, creating a new “consumerization” of healthcare.

  • AI-driven diagnostics and treatment: Artificial intelligence is becoming the new engine of healthcare, used to analyze medical images, accelerate drug discovery, and create personalized treatment plans.

  • The data-driven healthcare dashboard: We are moving from episodic data collection to a continuous, real-time stream of health intelligence, enabling community-wide monitoring of emerging health challenges.

  • The gig economy and the “just-in-time” medical professional: As medical knowledge fragments into hyper-specialized niches, organizations will increasingly rely on accessing the right skills at the right time for the right purpose.

  • The redefined pharmacy: The role of the pharmacy is expanding beyond simply dispensing pills into a critical hub for community care, diagnostics, and integrated health services.

  • Longevity science and brain health: The focus of medicine is shifting from just extending lifespan to enhancing “healthspan,” with massive investment focused on tackling the biggest challenges of aging.

  • The blurring of industries: Technology companies are becoming healthcare companies, food companies are becoming wellness companies, and insurers are becoming preventative care partners, creating new ecosystems of innovation.

All of this spells big opportunity – but also involves a huge effort.

A Deeper Dive:
The Forces Reshaping Healthcare

While all ten trends are critical, a few stand out for their immediate and profound impact. Their convergence is creating a powerful, self-perpetuating flywheel of innovation.The Shift to Preventative MedicineThe most fundamental transformation is the pivot from a reactive “sick care” model to a proactive system of preventative and predictive medicine. This is a complete realignment of the industry’s economic foundations. The global preventive healthcare market is on a steep upward trajectory, projected to reach an astounding $920.31 billion by 2034.At its core is the maturation of precision medicine.Examples abound. The completion of the Human Genome Project unlocked our ability to read the human genetic blueprint, and today, whole-genome sequencing is available for as low as $600. A landmark initiative, the “BeginNGS” newborn screening project, exemplifies this power. By conducting whole-genome sequencing on newborns, the program screens for hundreds of early-onset, actionable genetic conditions. Initial data were striking: 3.7% of the first 4,000 newborns screened positive for a condition not covered by standard tests, demonstrating a life-saving potential to intervene before a genetic condition causes irreversible harm.The Acceleration of Medical ScienceThe pace of scientific discovery has reached a velocity that is fundamentally reshaping the boundaries of what is possible.Medical knowledge is now doubling in months, not years.What does it lead to? Consider the global regenerative medicine market, which is projected to surge from $35.47 billion in 2024 to $90.01 billion by 2030 – we’ll soon be growing human body parts. That might be a bit of a stretch, but maybe not. Then there is the promise that gene therapy is finally being realized. In 2023, the FDA granted special designation to EDIT-301, a groundbreaking CRISPR gene-editing drug for severe sickle cell disease. In one remarkable case, a bespoke CRISPR treatment for a rare genetic disorder was developed for an infant in under six months, a feat made possible only through rapid collaboration across academia, industry, and regulators.Bio-Connectivity & The Virtualization of CareThe traditional concept of the hospital is rapidly becoming obsolete.A new paradigm, driven by bio-connectivity, is extending the reach of healthcare into the daily lives of patients.The global “remote patient monitoring (RPM) market” is projected to experience explosive growth, expanding from $27.72 billion in 2024 to $56.94 billion by 2030. A study of the Heartbeat Health virtual cardiology program provided compelling evidence of its efficacy. This 100-day post-discharge program, combining virtual visits with remote patient monitoring, achieved a 53% reduction in cardiac-related hospital readmissions.That’s a huge result! The future lies in bio-convergence, with innovations like bio-chips that can house living tissue (e.g., from a tumour biopsy) to test its response to various drugs outside the body.The Rise of the Empowered, Connected PatientThe centuries-old relationship between doctor and patient is undergoing a profound transformation. This “consumerization of healthcare” is forcing a rigid, provider-centric system to become more transparent and convenient.A 2024 PwC survey starkly illustrates the economic necessity driving this trend: seven out of ten consumers report that they either cannot afford their current healthcare costs or cannot afford to pay more. This financial pressure is the primary driver behind the demand for tools that allow patients to compare prices and make informed decisions. Modern platforms like Relatient are creating a comprehensive “digital front door,” offering Amazon-like healthcare experiences, with digital intake, secure two-way communication, and automated satisfaction surveys to create a seamless digital experience.AI-Driven Diagnostics and TreatmentArtificial intelligence is rapidly evolving into the new computational engine of modern healthcare.A 2024 study highlighted the dramatic impact of “Aidoc’s AI stroke solution”. By automatically analyzing brain scans to detect and prioritize suspected large vessel occlusions, the platform reduced the average door-to-puncture time by a remarkable 38 minutes. In oncology, the Princess Máxima Center for paediatric oncology is collaborating with Google to develop an AI tool named Capricorn, which leverages Google’s advanced Gemini models to help clinicians rapidly identify the most promising personalized treatment options for each child.

The Retreat of the US

In the middle of all these trends, we are witnessing the decline of a medical superpower.For decades, the United States has been the undisputed center of gravity for global healthcare innovation.That is now coming to an end.A once hypothetical but plausible scenario in 2025—in which a new U.S. administration implements regressive policies that turn away from science and healthcare investment—is now significantly altering the global healthcare landscape. This shift is a catalyst that is accelerating the global healthcare innovation as other countries take over the future of healthcare. The impact is that capital, talent, and research are rapidly migrating to nations with more supportive policies, creating a new, multi-polar world of healthcare advancement.A U.S. scientific and idea recession is manifesting in several ways:

  • Reduced Federal Research Funding: Significant cuts to the budgets of institutions like the National Institutes of Health (NIH) would curtail basic scientific research, slowing the pipeline of discovery.

  • Erection of Regulatory Barriers: A more skeptical or politicized regulatory environment could slow the approval of novel technologies like gene therapies and AI-driven diagnostic tools.

  • Withdrawal from International Collaboration: A retreat from global scientific partnerships and data-sharing initiatives would isolate the U.S. research community.

  • Legislative Instability: The potential repeal of legislation like the **_Affordable Care Act (ACA), which includes mandates for no-cost preventive services, could undermine the economic foundations of the preventative care market.

These trends are creating significant opportunities for other nations to “pick up the slack.”The United Kingdom, with its Life Sciences Vision and nationalized health data, is positioned to become a genomics leader. Canada, with over $2.2 billion in new federal funding for its Biomanufacturing and Life Sciences Strategy, is becoming a powerhouse in regenerative medicine. Germany, through its new Medical Research Act, is taking aggressive steps to speed up clinical trial approvals and attract pharmaceutical R&D.The result is not just a single new global leader, but a more decentralized innovation ecosystem where success depends on building a strategic presence across a diverse network of specialized innovation hubs.In my mind, this is only going to make the science and technology of healthcare even faster, while the US ultimately begins to suffer from its rejection of modern-day realities.

Bridging the Divide:
Barriers & Success Stories

Clearly, the healthcare sector is experiencing a technological transformation as profound as any in history, but this progress is creating a stark divide.The same “barbell economy” I’ve referred to in other industries is also emerging here, where large, well-funded health systems rapidly adopt transformative technologies, while smaller community hospitals, clinics, and independent practices struggle to keep pace. These smaller entities, the bedrock of healthcare delivery for many, face a formidable set of financial, infrastructural, and educational barriers that threaten to leave them behind.

  • Financial Hurdles: The high initial capital cost of advanced technology—from AI diagnostic platforms to robotic surgical systems—combined with an unclear or long-term Return on Investment (ROI), remains a primary barrier for organizations with tight margins.

  • Skills and Knowledge Gaps: The complexity of modern MedTech creates a significant skills gap. There is a shortage of workers with the expertise to operate, manage, and maintain these new systems, from data analytics to AI literacy. This extends to leadership, where many lack the expertise to build a compelling business case for investment.

  • Infrastructural Deficits: A lack of robust, interoperable IT infrastructure is a fundamental obstacle. Many smaller organizations are still grappling with legacy electronic health record (EHR) systems that do not easily integrate with new virtual care platforms, IoT sensors, or advanced analytics tools.

  • Data & Security Concerns: As healthcare becomes more connected, issues of data ownership, privacy, and cybersecurity become critical. Smaller organizations often lack the resources and expertise to implement the robust cybersecurity measures necessary to protect sensitive patient data from increasingly sophisticated threats.

Like I’ve mentioned – the opportunity is huge, but the barriers are high!

The Playbook:
10 Actionable Strategies for Healthcare Innovators

That means that the future of healthcare will be defined by those who are bold enough to act. This playbook outlines ten strategies for leaders to navigate the disruption and build a more intelligent, resilient, and patient-centric system.

  • Shift the mindset from “sick care” to “healthcare“: Make the transition to preventative medicine the core of your strategic vision. Focus on wellness, early diagnostics, and proactive interventions that keep people healthy, rather than just treating them after they become ill.

  • Embrace the virtualization of care: Aggressively invest in and pilot bio-connectivity and telehealth technologies. Extend the reach of your organization beyond its physical walls and into the community and the home, creating a more efficient and patient-friendly model of care.

  • Think like a technology company!: Recognize that every healthcare organization is now a technology company. This means prioritizing data analytics, building agile teams, and focusing relentlessly on the user (patient) experience.

  • Harness the power of AI: Move beyond pilot projects and integrate AI into core clinical and administrative workflows. Use it to enhance diagnostic accuracy, personalize treatment plans, and automate routine tasks to free up clinicians for more complex, human-centric care.

  • Master “just-in-time knowledge“: In an era of exploding medical knowledge, your competitive advantage comes from your ability to get the right knowledge to the right professional at the right time. Invest in AI-driven clinical decision support tools and platforms for continuous learning.

  • Design for the empowered patient: Involve patients in the design of new services and technologies. Build tools that provide them with access to their data, support shared decision-making, and empower them to become active partners in managing their health.

  • Adopt an “upside-down innovation” model:Don’t assume all the best ideas will come from within your organization. Source ideas from patients, frontline staff, and external partners. Actively collaborate with startups and technology companies that are redefining the boundaries of what’s possible.

  • Reinvent your workforce strategy: The war for talent is one of the biggest challenges in healthcare. This requires a new focus on upskilling and reskilling your existing workforce for the new roles of the virtual and data-driven era, and creating a culture that can attract and retain the next generation of medical professionals.

  • Build a culture of bold experimentation: The future of healthcare is too complex to be predicted with certainty; it must be discovered through experimentation. Create a culture where it is safe to try new things, learn from failure, and rapidly iterate on new models of care. Think big, start small, and scale fast.

  • Challenge your assumptions relentlessly: The rules of healthcare are being rewritten. The most dangerous assumption you can make is that what made you successful in the past will make you successful in the future. Constantly question your own business models, processes, and beliefs.

Last but not least, I’m not writing from some theoretical perch. I’ve walked and talked these trends with global leaders – with just a few of my projects involving these groups, where I’ve helped to put strategy into action:

  • Pfizer: The rapid evolution of genomic science, the acceleration of gene therapy, and the virtualization of healthcare are not just abstract trends; they are the core drivers of the modern pharmaceutical industry. My keynote for their global leadership team in Paris just months before the pandemic focused on the sweeping trends that would define their future, challenging them to align their R&D and business models to this new, high-velocity reality.

  • ICON PLC**: This global clinical trial powerhouse is at the forefront of leveraging AI to solve one of the biggest problems in drug development: the fact that 80% of clinical trials fail to meet their enrollment deadlines. My keynote for their CEO-level leadership meeting in Dublin was a deep dive into how they could use AI to disrupt their own business model—by identifying candidate molecules faster, predicting patient response to treatments, and accelerating the entire clinical trial process.

  • Invisalign / Align Technology: The world of dentistry is being transformed by the acceleration of new materials, 3D printing, and new, hyper-aware consumers. For my keynote to over 500 of their dentists in London, UK, the focus was on how to innovate in an era of volatility by embracing these fast-moving trends and creating new, patient-centric business models.

  • American Association of Orthopaedic Executives: Bionic limbs, 3D printed body parts, and IoT connectivity embedded directly into hip replacements are no longer science fiction. For this keynote in Nashville, I took over 500 executives on a rocket-ride into the future of their profession, challenging them to find opportunity in the accelerating pace of medical science and technology.

These organizations and many more are taking up the challenge of a world of healthcare that is navigating more profound and rapid change than it has witnessed in the last century.The forces at play—accelerating science, transformative technology, and the empowerment of the patient—are not cyclical trends but the agents of a permanent, structural reinvention of the industry. The opportunities for innovation are immense, but they will not be captured by those who cling to the models of the past.The future of healthcare will not be defined by a single piece of legislation or a singular miracle cure, but by the relentless pace of scientific discovery and the bold leaders who are willing to challenge the status quo. The future belongs to those who are fast, and the race to reinvent healthcare is on!

#5 Construction

For centuries, construction was about brute force. The next century will be about intelligence—smart materials, robotic precision, and data-driven design.” – Futurist Jim Carroll

For centuries, the core principles of building have remained relatively unchanged.Today, however, a powerful convergence of digital technology, advanced materials, and new methodologies is transforming every aspect of how we design, build, and manage the world’s buildings & infrastructure. Like most other industries, construction is moving from a project-based, physically-intensive model to a data-driven, technologically-advanced ecosystem.Let’s dig in.

The Landscape:
10 Trends Redefining Construction

Looking back at the keynotes I’ve done and what I’ve written about trends in this sector, certain key things stand out. Obviously, the future of construction is arriving faster than you think. These are the powerful currents reshaping the built environment.

  • Digital twin technology & virtualization. The industry is moving from 2D blueprints to dynamic, 4D digital twins—virtual replicas of physical assets used from design through to lifelong operational management.

  • AI-driven design and project management. Artificial intelligence is becoming the new engine of construction intelligence, used to generate optimized designs, predict project timelines, and identify potential safety risks.

  • Robotics & automation on the job site. Robots are moving out of the factory and onto the construction site, with autonomous vehicles for earthmoving, brick-laying robots, and drones for site surveys, addressing labor shortages and improving safety.

  • Off-site & modular construction. The process of building is shifting from the construction site to the factory floor, improving quality, reducing waste, and shortening project timelines.

  • Accelerated materials science. The very materials we build with are being reinvented, with innovations like self-healing concrete, transparent solar-generating glass, and carbon-negative building materials.

  • The rise of intelligent infrastructure. Our buildings, roads, and bridges are becoming smart and connected, with integrated IoT sensors creating “living” structures that can monitor their own health and manage energy in real-time.

  • Sustainability & the circular economy. Green building is moving from a niche market to a core business imperative, with a growing focus on “design for deconstruction” to reuse materials and eliminate waste.

  • The advanced skills gap. As construction becomes a technology-driven industry, there is a massive new demand for professionals with skills in data science, robotics, digital modeling, and systems integration.

  • The transformation of infrastructure investment. Massive global investment is shifting toward 21st-century infrastructure, including the build-out of a new distributed energy grid, 5G communication networks, and EV charging infrastructure.

  • Hyper-connectivity & location intelligence. The job site is becoming a fully connected, data-rich environment, with real-time data from drones, sensors, and wearables providing unprecedented visibility and control.

Put them all together, and nothing in the world of construction will look much like it does today.

A Deeper Dive:
The Most Significant Forces Reshaping Construction

While all ten trends are critical, a few stand out for their immediate and profound impact. Their convergence is creating a powerful, self-perpetuating flywheel of innovation.AI & Data Analytics: From Project Management to Predictive MaintenanceArtificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly transitioning from a futuristic concept to a practical, value-adding tool for construction SMEs.AI-driven project management platforms can automate complex scheduling and resource allocation, predict potential delays, and provide real-time progress tracking for better decision-making. In the preconstruction phase, AI tools enhance the accuracy of estimating, providing realistic forecasts for labor, material, and equipment costs, thereby reducing the risk of budget overruns. I had a construction event in Chicago where one company displayed a stunning piece of estimating software which shaves significant time off of the estimation process. On-site, AI-powered systems, often utilizing drones and computer vision, can monitor for safety hazards and ensure compliance with protocols.For construction companies, the primary value proposition of AI is its ability to optimize resource use, reduce costly errors, and provide the data-driven insights needed to improve profitability and compete more effectively. Sure, there’s a lot of hype right now, but there is also an awful lot of very powerful stuff coming together.Robotics & Automation: Augmenting the Workforce for Precision and SafetyRobotics and automation are emerging as a crucial response to two of the construction industry’s most pressing challenges: the chronic labor shortage and the persistent need for higher quality and precision.On-site robotics can automate tasks that are physically strenuous, repetitive, and require a high degree of accuracy, such as drilling, welding, or site layout. A key development making this technology more accessible to SMEs is the rise of aftermarket automation systems.Companies like Built Robotics have engineered solutions such as the Exosystem,, a package that can be retrofitted onto existing heavy equipment from major manufacturers like Caterpillar and John Deere. This transforms a standard excavator or dozer into a fully autonomous robot, allowing companies to gain the benefits of automation without the prohibitive capital cost of purchasing an entirely new, specialized fleet.Digital Twins & Immersive Reality: Enhancing Collaboration and Eliminating ReworkDigital twin technology is one of the most revolutionary concepts reshaping the construction landscape. A digital twin is a dynamic, virtual replica of a physical asset—such as a building—that is continuously updated with real-world data from sensors and scans.This creates a powerful tool for the entire project lifecycle, from initial design through long-term facility management. For SMEs, the most immediate benefits lie in enhanced collaboration and risk reduction. By creating an immersive, high-fidelity 3D model of a project site, firms can enable remote teams, clients, and stakeholders to conduct detailed virtual site visits. This drastically reduces the need for physical travel, saving significant time and money while also lowering the project’s carbon footprint.Modular & Offsite Construction: Building Faster, Smarter, and More SustainablyModular construction represents a paradigm shift from traditional, site-based building to a manufacturing-centric approach where building components are produced in a controlled factory environment and then transported to the site for assembly. We used to do most building and construction assembly on site – increasingly, we’ll do more of it in a factory-like setting, off-site.This methodology directly confronts many of the construction industry’s chronic weaknesses. By moving up to 90% of the construction activity off-site, it can accelerate project timelines by as much as 50% and reduce on-site manpower requirements by up to 40%, according to some estimates. This addresses both the demand for faster project delivery and the persistent shortage of skilled labor.While the sector includes large developers, the modular ecosystem is rich with opportunities for SMEs, who can thrive by specializing in the manufacturing of specific components, such as bathroom pods or facade panels.

The Digital Divide: Barriers to a Modern Construction Industry

Of course, progress is great, but it often happens unevenly. Big construction behemoths are already actively using and exploring these opportunities; many medium-sized and smaller ones remain shut out.Why is that? No doubt the construction sector is an economic behemoth built upon a vast foundation of small and medium-sized enterprises. This structure, however, creates a fundamental tension: the very firms that constitute the industry’s operational core are the most constrained in their ability to innovate.

  • Financial constraints: The most significant inhibitor for SMEs is funding. The high upfront cost of digital tools is the principal reason given for non-adoption. This is compounded by a deep-seated fear of technological obsolescence; 50% of business leaders express concern about investing in a technology that could quickly be outdated.

  • Skills and human capital: A critical and rapidly worsening barrier is the pervasive skills shortage. Globally, 53% of construction firms are concerned about a lack of workers with suitable skills. The lack of in-house technical expertise directly impedes the ability to implement and derive value from new digital systems.

  • Data and digital infrastructure: A staggering 65% of firms in Spain and Portugal worry about having accurate, structured data from which to make business decisions. This data fragmentation leads to immense inefficiency, with the average employee spending 13 hours per week simply searching for information.

  • Organizational and cultural resistance: The construction industry is notoriously traditional and risk-averse, with a deeply ingrained cultural inertia that resists change. This is reinforced by a lack of client and stakeholder demand for digital tools, creating a self-perpetuating cycle of low expectations and slow progress.

Beating the Odds:
Case Studies in Construction Innovation

Despite these formidable barriers, a growing number of SMEs are successfully navigating the path to modernization, providing a practical blueprint for others to follow. I dug into a few articles reporting on how organizations are moving forward:

  • AI-Powered Project Management (Mid-Sized Firm): A mid-sized construction firm was caught in a cycle of inefficiency, facing chronic scheduling challenges and frequent, unexpected equipment breakdowns. By adopting a targeted AI software solution focused on scheduling and predictive maintenance, the firm significantly reduced equipment downtime, lowered costs, and gained control over project timelines and budgets.

  • Layout Robotics (Rugged Robotics): For a large-area equipment layout project, Brogoitti Construction deployed the Rugged Robotics solution and slashed its projected timeline from eight weeks to under two weeks—a 75% time saving. On another project, Suffolk Construction used the same technology to cut layout time by 60% while simultaneously reducing costly rework by 75%.

  • Digital Twins (Swinerton Construction): Faced with severe restrictions on job site access during the COVID-19 lockdown, Swinerton deployed Matterport’s digital twin platform. The use of the immersive 3D model directly eliminated four weeks of potential project delays, reduced client travel time by 100%, and, by enabling early virtual reviews, saved the client thousands of dollars in prevented rework.

  • Modular Construction (Elements Europe): An analysis of the Camp Hill residential project in the UK revealed a dramatic reduction in its logistical footprint. Compared to a traditional project, the modular approach required 3,700 fewer deliveries, a 56% reduction in vehicle movements. The project also demonstrated an approximate 35% reduction in embodied carbon.

  • The Circular Economy (KLAW Industries): This small business, supported by the EPA’s SBIR program, developed an innovative process for turning waste glass into a high-performance material that can replace traditional cement. The resulting concrete is not only stronger and lower in cost, but also boasts 97% lower carbon emissions compared to the cement it replaces.

The Playbook:
10 Actionable Strategies for Construction Innovators

The future of construction will be defined by those who are bold enough to act. So what can they do? Start thinking about the small steps that matter!

  • Build a roadmap: The future is a journey that should be mapped out. At least get going!

  • Focus on a culture of innovation: The human element is paramount. Change must be driven from the top with active and visible leadership. Invest in upskilling your workforce by partnering with community colleges and industry associations like the NAHB. Empower your field crews by choosing “field-ready” technologies with intuitive mobile interfaces.

  • Find money! Overcome the funding barrier with a proactive approach. Create a dedicated “innovation budget” for pilot projects. Appoint a “funding scout” to navigate the complex landscape of public grants and tax credits like the SR&ED program in Canada or SBIR grants in the U.S. Explore tech-specific financing from institutions like the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC).

  • Think tech! Make digital tools the foundation of your entire process. This means moving beyond paper blueprints to fully embrace Building Information Modeling (BIM) and digital twins for every project.

  • Invest in learning and experimenting with off-site and modular construction: Shift as much of the building process as possible from the unpredictable environment of the job site to the controlled environment of a factory. This is one of the most powerful strategies for improving quality, speed, and predictability.

  • Learn to collaborate more: The complexity of modern construction requires deep collaboration. Forge strategic partnerships with technology startups, academic institutions like Germany’s Fraunhofer Building Innovation Alliance, and materials scientists to gain access to cutting-edge innovations.

  • Explore the circular economy: Make green building a core competitive advantage, not just a compliance issue. Actively explore and pilot the use of new, sustainable materials and adopt “design for deconstruction” principles to create long-term value.

  • Upskill your workforce: The skills gap is one of the biggest threats to the industry. Partner with community colleges and trade unions to develop training programs for the new roles of the digital era. Invest heavily in upskilling and reskilling your existing workforce.

The construction industry is at a historic inflection point.Technology, automation, and intelligence are not just incremental improvements; they are the building blocks of a fundamentally new way of doing things. For an industry long defined by its resistance to change, the coming decade will be a period of profound challenge and unprecedented opportunity. The leaders who thrive will be those who move beyond traditional methods and embrace a new identity as technology-driven innovators.The future of construction will not be built with the blueprints of the past.It will be assembled with digital twins, intelligent machines, and sustainable materials, guided by a new generation of leaders who are not afraid to build a bolder, faster, and smarter world.

#6 Insurance

The future of insurance will be written by those who move from predicting the past to architecting the future, transforming risk from a liability to be avoided into an asset to be managed.” – Futurist Jim Carroll

The insurance industry stands at a historic inflection point – moving from always looking back, to increasingly looking right now and looking forward.Think about it – for centuries, the foundation of the industry has been the actuarial analysis of the past—a model that involves looking at what happened, and indemnifying customers based on that reality. That era is over. A powerful convergence of hyper-connectivity, artificial intelligence (AI), and accelerating, complex risk is forcing a new model, in which insurance is underwritten not by looking at the past, but by underwriting risk based on real-time information and concise information on what might happen next.This is a huge change.

The Landscape:
10 Trends Redefining Insurance

I’ve been covering trends in the industry for 30 years. Looking back at my keynotes and what I’ve written about the industry, 10 key trends stand out that are reshaping the global risk landscape.

  • The shift to predictive analytics. The industry is moving from underwriting based on historical data to real-time risk assessment based on predictive modeling.

  • Hyper-connectivity & the Internet of Things (IoT). The world is becoming a network of intelligent, connected devices, providing a continuous stream of real-time data that allows insurers to move from a “repair and replace” to a “predict and prevent” model.

  • The acceleration of risk. The pace of change is creating new, complex forms of risk, from cybersecurity and climate volatility to the ethical implications of AI and the “end of reality.”

  • AI-driven underwriting and claims. Artificial intelligence is becoming the new engine of insurance operations, used to automate underwriting, accelerate claims processing, and detect fraud with greater accuracy.

  • Just-in-time” & usage-based insurance (UBI). The traditional annual policy is being disrupted by more flexible, personalized models that price risk based on actual behavior.

  • The blurring of industries. The lines between insurance, technology, and other sectors are dissolving as automakers, tech giants, and data analytics firms enter the insurance space.

  • The rise of the empowered, digital customer. Policyholders now expect the same level of digital convenience and personalization from their insurer that they get from Amazon or Netflix.

  • The reinvention of distribution channels. The role of the traditional broker and agent is being challenged by direct-to-consumer models and new digital intermediaries.

  • The transformation of actuarial science. The actuarial profession is moving beyond historical data tables to a world of real-time, predictive analytics, becoming data scientists who model complex, fast-moving risks.

  • The emergence of “risk architecture” as a service. As the world becomes more complex, insurers are evolving from simply transferring risk to becoming holistic risk management partners.

A Deeper Dive:
The Most Significant Forces Reshaping Insurance

The theoretical promise of technology in insurance has given way to irrefutable, data-backed evidence of its transformative power. A few key trends stand out for their profound and immediate impact.From Rearview Mirror to Real-Time: The Power of Predictive Analytics & IoTThe foundational shift from a reactive to a proactive risk management model is being enabled by a torrent of real-time data from connected devices. Quite simply, as the world becomes connected, the world generates a lot of real-time information that can be analyzed for real-time risk!This is not a niche segment but a mainstream, high-growth market. The global IoT insurance market is projected to surge from approximately $15.09 billion in 2023 to over $91.75 billion by 2030. This rapid expansion underscores the urgency for insurers to move from analyzing historical data to leveraging real-time insights for loss prevention.The commercial auto sector is being revolutionized by Usage-Based Insurance (UBI). By leveraging telematics data (i.e. the GPS data), insurers can price risk in real time based on factors like distance traveled and driving behaviors. One study suggests that real-time driver feedback has led to a 15% reduction in accident rates in ride-sharing fleets, while aligning premiums with actual risk has achieved a claims reduction of over 20% and delivered premium savings of 30% to drivers.The Algorithmic Underwriter: AI’s Impact on Risk Selection and PricingArtificial intelligence is moving from the periphery to the core of insurance operations, most profoundly in the underwriting of risk.For one top-five U.S. P&C insurer, deploying Shift Technology’s AI to analyze new auto policies generated more than $15 in incremental prevented losses for every new policy analyzed, leading to a projection of more than $30 million in annual underwriting mitigation. That’s a big win!The Evolution of Business Models: InsurTech Pioneers and Incumbent ResponsesTechnological shifts are leading to entirely new business models, some of which are specifically aimed at less technology-adept small and medium-sized customers.Next Insuranc operates as a direct-to-consumer digital carrier, offering tailored policies for over 1,300 types of small businesses with the ability to get a quote in under 10 minutes. In contrast, Coterie Insurance pursues a B2B2C (business to business to consumer) model, empowering agents with a simple system that allows them to generate instant, bindable quotes for their small business clients. In both cases, it’s obvious there is a winning strategy in the SME space that involves making it easier for insurers to do business while potentially reaching new customers.

The Digital Divide: Barriers to a Modern Insurance Industry

Despite the immense promise of these trends, the insurance industry has been notoriously slow to change. Like, really slow! It’s said that more than half of the coding in the industry still runs on COBOL! This means there is a huge speed divide between the new InsurTech startups and legacy companies. This leads to:

  • The legacy drag anchor: The industry’s dependence on aging, monolithic core systems is a huge anchor! These systems are operationally inflexible and a significant financial drain, consuming up to 90% of the IT budget just on maintenance. Not to mention that these old systems present a major cybersecurity vulnerability.

  • The human element: The industry faces a demographic time bomb, with nearly 400,000 employees expected to retire in the next few years. This is compounded by a failure to attract the next generation and a critical skills chasm in data science and AI. A lack of in-house expertise is the primary obstacle to AI adoption, and studies show that only one in three insurers has a formal AI training program in place.

  • Cultural risk aversion: The very nature of insurance is to avoid risk, but this mindset becomes a major obstacle to innovation. A culture that fears failure will struggle to experiment with the new technologies and business models that are essential for future success, leading to a state of “aggressive indecision.”

  • The small and medium-sized carrier challenge: Smaller carriers operate with limited resources for R&D and often lack the vast troves of historical data needed to train proprietary AI models. This is creating a widening digital divide where smaller insurers are far more likely to be in the early, experimental stages of AI adoption while their larger counterparts are actively implementing proven solutions.

Beating the Odds:
Case Studies in Insurance Transformation

Despite the barriers, pioneers are demonstrating that transformation is possible. Their success stories provide a powerful blueprint.

  • HSB & Commercial IoT Loss Prevention: Hartford Steam Boiler (HSB) has moved beyond traditional coverage to actively mitigate losses for its commercial clients. By deploying a “virtual watchdog” system using commercial-grade IoT sensors, the company provides 24/7 monitoring of client facilities. In its first year, with over 4,000 installations, the program prevented an estimated $8 million in losses, proving that investing in prevention technology is a direct driver of profitability.

  • The UBI Revolution in Commercial Fleets (Nirvana Insurance): InsurTech Nirvana Insurance uses IoT data from truck sensors to create advanced risk models for small trucking fleets. This strategy has attracted $57 million in funding, validating the model’s appeal to investors and proving the value of usage-based insurance in a dynamic economy.

  • The Power of Partnership (Bolttech): A prominent national insurer, constrained by fragmented legacy systems, partnered with InsurTech Bolttech to implement a unified digital distribution platform. The partnership acted as a catalyst for explosive growth, allowing the insurer to expand its network from 50 agents to over 2,000 in five years and add $4 billion in new quoted premiums.

  • The Incumbent’s Pivot (Liberty Mutual): Liberty Mutual executed a massive internal transformation by adopting a “serverless-first” approach using Amazon Web Services (AWS). This was not just a technology project but an operating model shift, encapsulated in their mantra: “Code is a liability.” The benefits were realized in cost, speed, and agility. Application build time was slashed from an average of one year to just three months, and the cost of processing 100 million financial transactions became negligible at just $60 per million transactions.

The Playbook:
10 Actionable Strategies for Insurance Innovators

All of this means that the future of insurance will be defined by those who are bold enough to act. What do organizations need to do?

  • Embrace a “predict and prevent” mindset (evolve to risk architecture): Systematically evolve your business model from selling a financial product to delivering a comprehensive risk management service. This can be achieved by developing a tiered offering that integrates IoT monitoring and risk management consulting into your policies.

  • Think like a technology company: Elevate technology to a C-suite and board-level strategic priority. Adopt the philosophies of tech leaders like Liberty Mutual, re-imagining every process through a lens of customer-centric design.

  • Modernize your core systems (strategically): Develop a multi-year, board-supported roadmap to migrate from monolithic legacy systems to a flexible, cloud-based, API-driven architecture. Prioritize the systems that create the biggest bottlenecks, like claims and underwriting, and consider third-party maintenance providers for stable legacy systems to free up capital for innovation.

  • Harness the power of AI across the value chain. Systematically integrate AI into high-impact areas. Begin with proven, high-ROI use cases like fraud detection and claims automation to secure executive buy-in – these already have a long track record. Mandate 100% explainability for all AI models used in critical decision-making to ensure adoption and regulatory compliance.

  • Innovate with new insurance products: Reinvent your products! Establish a formal process for systematically identifying, developing, and launching products that address emerging risks. Create dedicated teams from multiple departments that focus on fast-moving risk categories like advanced cybersecurity threats, climate volatility, and the unique liabilities of the gig economy.

  • Build a collaborative ecosystem: Make strategic partnerships with tech companies in the industry (aka InsurTechs) as a primary pillar of your corporate innovation strategy. Identify specific gaps in your systems and seek out a best-in-class partner to fill that gap.

  • Future-proof your workforce (the #1 priority): Declare a “war for talent” and launch a multi-pronged strategy to build the workforce of the future. Invest heavily in upskilling existing employees with formal certifications in data science and AI. Fundamentally change your recruitment approach to hire top technology professionals and teach them insurance.

  • Adopt an “upside-down innovation” model: Formally empower frontline staff, agents, and brokers to be a primary source of innovation. Create methods for them to submit ideas that go beyond the ‘suggestion box’, so they can report inefficiencies, highlight unmet customer needs, and ground innovation in solving real-world problems.

  • Build a culture of bold experimentation: De-risk innovation by creating a “safe to fail” environment. Allocate a specific, protected portion of the annual budget for experimental projects. When an experiment fails, publicly celebrate the “intelligent failure” and disseminate the lessons learned across the organization.

  • Empower the independent agent with better tech!: Fundamentally re-evaluate and reinvent your value proposition for the independent agent channel. Transform your role from a simple product provider to a true business partner by equipping agents with a modern digital marketing toolkit, including training and resources for SEO, content marketing, and social media engagement.

The insurance industry is at a historic inflection point. The forces of digitization, hyper-connectivity, and artificial intelligence are not just incremental improvements; they are the agents of a fundamental reinvention of the concept of risk.The leaders who thrive will be those who move beyond the models of the past and embrace a new identity as technology-driven risk architects. The future of insurance will not be built with the actuarial tables of yesterday. It will be underwritten with real-time data, managed with intelligent algorithms, and delivered through seamless digital platforms, guided by a new generation of leaders who are not afraid to build a bolder, faster, and smarter future.

#7 Retail

Retail success is no longer about moving boxes from a warehouse to a shelf. It’s about moving an experience from a brand story into a customer’s life.” – Futurist Jim Carroll

Perhaps no industry has been impacted more by the forces of disruption – the rise of Amazon, e-commerce, supply chain sophistication, changing consumers, and more.And yet the fact is, the retail landscape is undergoing and still very much in the midst of a tectonic shift, moving decisively away from a product-centric universe to one governed by experiences, relationships, and values. It’s all about the entertainment, engagement, and experience, being driven by a new generation of consumers who wield unprecedented influence through digital platforms. For retailers, technological adoption is no longer a matter of choice; it is a fundamental and urgent response to a profound change in consumer power, behavior, and expectations.Success through 2030 will be defined not by what a retailer sells, but by how it engages, empowers, and aligns with the values of its customers. Let’s start with the major trends impacting the sector.

The Landscape:
10 Trends Redefining Retail & Supply Chains

To thrive in the new era of commerce, one must first understand the powerful currents reshaping the entire ecosystem, from the factory to the front door.

  • The end of inventory. The traditional “make-to-stock” model is being replaced by agile “make-to-order” and direct-to-consumer systems, with technologies like 3D printing enabling on-demand production.

  • The experiential imperative. The physical store is being reimagined as a stage for brand immersion and community engagement, offering tactile, multi-sensory experiences that e-commerce cannot replicate.

  • The autonomous last mile. Consumer expectations for speed are fueling massive innovation in logistics, with autonomous delivery vehicles (ADVs), sidewalk robots, and aerial drones poised to redefine delivery.

  • The AI-powered supply chain. Artificial intelligence is the new engine of commerce, used to generate highly accurate demand forecasts, optimize inventory, and orchestrate logistics in real-time.

  • Phygital convergence. The future isn’t online or in-store; it’s a seamless blend of the physical and digital, bringing the convenience and personalization of the online world into the physical space.

  • The great decoupling & supply chain resilience. Geopolitical risk has supplanted cost as a primary driver of supply chain strategy, forcing a pivot from pure efficiency to robust resilience through diversification and regionalization.

  • The ascendant consumer. Generation Z and Millennials are the new architects of retail, demanding transparency, sustainability, and authentic alignment with their personal values from the brands they support.

  • The circular economy. A new business paradigm is emerging, focused on eliminating waste and keeping products in use through models like resale, rental, repair, and remanufacturing.

  • The collapse of attention spans. The average consumer scans 12 feet of shelf space per second, and their attention is constantly fragmented by digital devices.

  • The sentient network. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the sensory nervous system of the modern supply chain, providing the real-time visibility necessary for predictive analytics and automated decision-making.

A Deeper Dive:
The Most Significant Forces Reshaping Retail and Supply Chain

While all ten trends are critical, a few stand out for their immediate and profound impact. Their convergence is creating a powerful, self-perpetuating flywheel of innovation! Retailers must jump on the flywheel to stay relevant!The Experiential Imperative: The Store as a Stage!The role of the brick-and-mortar store has been irrevocably altered.In an era where any product can be purchased online, the physical store must offer something e-commerce cannot: an experience!. Forward-thinking retailers are embracing this shift by “turning the store into a stage.” Nike’s House of Innovation in New York City is a perfect example, a dynamic brand ecosystem where shoppers use the Nike app to scan mannequins, reserve items, and receive personalized recommendations in smart fitting rooms.Likewise, Lululemon has successfully positioned its stores as community hubs, hosting in-store yoga classes and wellness workshops. This strategy builds deep, authentic customer relationships, underscored by data indicating that 85% of consumers are more likely to purchase after attending a live experiential marketing event.Customers want more than shopping – they want more than a transaction. They want fulfillment!Phygital Convergence: Erasing the Lines Between Online and OfflineThe future of retail lies in the seamless integration of physical and digital channels into a unified customer experience, a concept known as “phygital.”Warby Parker, a brand that arrived online, provides a powerful case study of what happens when the lines are blurred. Its physical locations are designed as simple, streamlined showrooms. Customers can try on glasses and, if they choose not to buy immediately, save the model numbers to their online account to revisit later, creating a frictionless, low-pressure journey. The online and offline worlds are linked together into a seamless blend.A pivotal technology driving this is augmented reality (AR). Sephora’s in-store AR mirrors, which allow customers to virtually try on makeup, have been shown to result in a 31% boost in sales and 90% higher conversion rates. In home goods, AR apps like IKEA’s Place see a significant 22-40% reduction in product return rates by eliminating purchase uncertainty.The Ascendant Consumer: Decoding the Gen Z and Millennial MindsetGeneration Z and Millennials are the new architects of the retail paradigm. They have no attention span, little loyalty, and are digital-first in everything they do. This means that their behaviors and motivations are non-negotiable realities.What’s the impact? Social media is the primary source of shopping inspiration for 97% of Gen Z consumers. The “TikTok Made Me Buy It” phenomenon is a testament to the power of viral trends. However, their digital fluency is matched by a pragmatic approach to finance, with 62% of Gen Z using “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) services.Perhaps most defining is their conditional approach to brand loyalty. A majority of Gen Z (57%) are less loyal to brands now than before the pandemic, and loyalty must be continuously earned through alignment with their personal values. Data shows that 64% of Gen Z would pay more for an eco-friendly product and would boycott a company for unethical labor practices.The AI-Powered Supply Chain: From Reactive to PredictiveArtificial intelligence is enabling a fundamental transition from traditional, reactive planning to a new paradigm of predictive and prescriptive optimization. While there is a lot of AI hype, the reality is that AI has long proven its’ real value in deep data and analytics.Leading platforms are delivering quantifiable results. Blue Yonder’s Luminate Platform enables Walgreens to meet a 30-minute order promise and helps DHL achieve 7% transportation cost savings. Using Kinaxis’s AI-powered digital twin, a health and beauty retailer achieved a 30% increase in forecast accuracy, a 50% reduction in promotion planning hours, and a 31% decrease in stock-outs. o9 Solutions’ “Digital Brain” helped a global food producer achieve a 5-8% forecast accuracy improvement by incorporating over 230 external demand drivers.Gartner predicts that such AI agents could take over as many as half of all supply chain tasks by 2030.

The Digital Divide:
Barriers to a Modern Retail & Logistics Industry

While the future holds immense promise, the path to transformation is littered with significant barriers that are creating a divide between the agile innovators and the incumbents struggling to adapt.

  • The anchor of legacy: Old technology, old computers, old code! For many incumbent retailers, legacy IT systems are not just inefficient; they are strategic liabilities. These antiquated, monolithic systems are difficult to modify, create data silos, and consume a staggering 58-80% of the IT budget simply on maintenance, leaving little capital for innovation.

  • The human element: An estimated 70-95% of digital transformation initiatives fail, not due to faulty technology, but due to cultural resistance, leadership misalignment, and a failure to manage the human side of change. This is compounded by a skills gap in critical areas like data science and AI.

  • Geopolitical volatility: The era of hyper-efficient global supply chains built on the assumption of geopolitical stability is over. 90% of executives now view geopolitics as the greatest risk to economic growth, with disruptions projected to cost global supply chains over $1 trillion in 2025 alone.

  • Channel conflict: For manufacturers and brands with established wholesale and retail partnerships, the strategic imperative to move to a direct-to-consumer model creates significant conflict with their existing channel partners.

  • The tyranny of the urgent: Many retailers are trapped in a cycle of short-term, reactive decision-making, focused on quarterly sales targets rather than long-term strategic transformation. This “aggressive indecision” prevents necessary investments in future-focused technologies.

Beating the Odds:
Case Studies in Insurance Transformation

Despite the barriers, pioneers are proving that transformation is possible. Their success stories provide a powerful blueprint.

  • The AI-Powered Supply Chain (Blue Yonder & Walgreens): By implementing Blue Yonder’s Luminate Platform, Walgreens can promise online order fulfillment in as little as 30 minutes, demonstrating how AI-driven demand sensing and automated replenishment can translate directly into a superior customer experience and a powerful competitive advantage.

  • The Autonomous Last Mile (Walmart & DroneUp): In its quest to leverage its vast physical store footprint for e-commerce fulfillment, Walmart has partnered with DroneUp to test the delivery of small packages via drones from its stores in Arkansas. This positions the retail giant at the forefront of redefining the speed and economics of the last mile.

  • Manufacturing on Demand (Dr. Scholl’s) Dr. Scholl’s uses 3D printing to create custom shoe insoles. Customers use an app to take photos of their feet, which generates a 3D model based on 400 mapping points. A personalized insole is then printed and delivered within days, showcasing how mass customization can be delivered at scale.

  • The Circular Economy (Patagonia & IKEA): Patagonia’s “Worn Wear” program and IKEA’s “Buy Back & Resell” service are prime examples of circular business models. By facilitating the buying and selling of their own pre-owned products, these brands capture a share of the secondary market, increase customer lifetime value, and reinforce their commitment to sustainability.

The Playbook:
Actionable Strategies for Retailers

What do retailers need to do>? Get on the flywheel of innovation – the trends aren’t going to stop, but will only accelerate.

  • Turn your store into a stage: Reimagine the purpose of your physical footprint. Invest in creating unique, engaging, and shareable in-store experiences that build community and brand loyalty, turning your store into a marketing channel, not just a sales channel.

  • Master the last mile: Recognize that the delivery experience is now a core part of your brand promise. Partner with or invest in innovative last-mile logistics solutions to offer customers faster, more flexible, and more sustainable delivery options.

  • Architect a seamless “phygital” journey: Break down the silos between your physical and digital teams. Design a unified customer journey that allows shoppers to move effortlessly between online and in-store channels, with consistent branding, data, and experience.

  • Innovate at the speed of the consumer: Your product development and marketing cycles must now operate at the speed of social media. Create agile, cross-functional teams that can rapidly identify emerging trends and launch new products or marketing campaigns in weeks, not years.

  • Embrace the circular economy: Move beyond linear “take-make-dispose” models. Explore opportunities in resale, rental, repair, and remanufacturing to create new revenue streams, build deeper customer relationships, and meet the growing demand for sustainability.

  • Build a brand that matters: Authenticity, transparency, and sustainability are the new currency of brand loyalty. Align your brand values with the expectations of the next generation of consumers and be prepared to prove it with real, verifiable actions.

The retail and supply chain industries are in the midst of a once-in-a-generation transformation.The forces of digitization, personalization, and logistical innovation are not just creating new efficiencies; they are continuing to change the entire concept of retail. For an industry that has been defined by its physical footprint and historical processes, the coming decade will continue to be a period of profound challenge and unprecedented opportunity.The future of commerce will not be built with the blueprints of the 20th century – the pandemic taught us that. It will be coded with intelligent algorithms, delivered by autonomous fleets, and experienced in immersive, personalized environments, guided by a new generation of leaders who are not afraid to build a bolder, faster, and smarter world.

#8 Financial services

For centuries, finance was defined by stability and caution. For the next decade, it will be defined by velocity and agility. The slow will not survive.” – Futurist Jim Carroll

The financial services industry, an institution built on centuries of tradition and perceived stability, is in the midst of its most profound and disruptive transformation in history.The very concept of money, the nature of a transaction, and the role of the institutions that manage our wealth are being fundamentally reimagined. A powerful convergence of mobile technology, artificial intelligence, and a new generation of digital-native competitors is dismantling old certainties and creating a new, high-velocity financial industry where speed matters!

The Landscape:
10 Trends Redefining Financial Services

To succeed in this new environment, one must first understand the powerful currents reshaping the entire industry, from retail banking to global investment.

  • The AI imperative. Artificial intelligence has transcended its role as a back-office tool to become a core driver of front-office strategy, product innovation, and customer engagement, moving the industry toward a new phase of cognitive finance.

  • The blockchain promise. Beyond cryptocurrencies, the underlying distributed ledger technology (DLT) is poised to rewire the foundational infrastructure of finance, providing a secure, transparent, and tamper-proof system for transactions and asset management.

  • The API economy & open banking. Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) have become the central nervous system of modern finance, enabling a fundamental shift from a closed, product-centric model to an open, customer-centric platform ecosystem.

  • The FinTech vanguard. The traditional banking monopoly is continually being challenged by agile startups (“FinTechs”) who win by identifying and obsessively solving a specific, unmet customer need with a superior user experience.

  • The acceleration of risk. The pace of change is creating new, complex forms of risk, from AI-driven fraud to the looming existential threat of quantum computing to the cryptographic foundations of modern finance.

  • The empowered, digital-native customer. The next generation of customers expects a seamless, intuitive, and personalized digital experience, forcing a massive shift away from branch-centric models.

  • The reinvention of wealth management. The traditional advisory model is being disrupted by “robo-advisors,” while a new generation of investors demands greater transparency, sustainable investment options, and collaborative digital tools.

  • The human capital deficit. As banking becomes a technology industry, the required skills are changing dramatically, creating a critical and widening talent and skills gap in areas like data science and AI.

  • The new battleground of data. In a digital-first world, the ability to ethically collect, analyze, and act on customer data is becoming the key differentiator, enabling hyper-personalized products and more accurate risk assessment.

  • The great generational wealth transfer. A multi-trillion-dollar transfer of wealth from Baby Boomers to their Millennial and Gen Z heirs is underway, creating a massive new client base with fundamentally different values and expectations.

A Deeper Dive: The Forces Reshaping Finance

While all ten trends are critical, a few stand out for their immediate and profound impact. Their convergence is creating a powerful, self-perpetuating flywheel of innovation.The AI Imperative: From Operational Efficiency to Cognitive FinanceAI and machine learning have become a core driver of strategy, given the role of AI in analyzing vast volumes of information.The most immediate impact has been in process automation. By automating manual, data-intensive tasks, firms are achieving significant gains in speed and accuracy. For instance, QuickLoan Financial transformed its loan approval process by adopting an AI model, resulting in a 40% decrease in loan processing time and a 25% improvement in detecting high-risk applications.Beyond efficiency, AI is reshaping investment strategies. The ability of algorithms to analyze massive datasets in fractions of a second allows firms to move from reactive to predictive decision-making. CapitalGains Investments, facing a volatile market, implemented an AI-driven platform for real-time market analysis and achieved a 20% increase in annual returns for its clients.The Blockchain Promise: Building Trust in a Decentralized WorldBlockchain and distributed ledger technology (DLT) are poised to rewire the foundational infrastructure of finance. It’s a new form of ‘accounting’ and settlement that promises to change everything, although implementation will be complex and time-consuming.How signfiicant?The global FinTech blockchain market, valued at $7.2 billion in 2023, is forecast to reach $325.6 billion by 2033. Trade finance has emerged as a prime use case.The API Economy: Open Banking and Platform-Based EcosystemsApplication Programming Interfaces (APIs) have become the central nervous system of the modern financial ecosystem. API’s allow others to write code and develop applications that link to the financial data of another organization, allowing the development of all kinds of new business models.Companies like Plaid have built entire businesses on providing the API infrastructure that connects thousands of financial apps—including Venmo, Coinbase, and Robinhood—to users’ bank accounts.For incumbents, embracing the API economy requires a disciplined approach. Mastercard’s Developers platform, which offers a wide range of APIs for payments, security, and data services, is a gold standard, generating both direct revenue and indirect value by strengthening its partner network.The FinTech Vanguard: Analyzing the Business Models of Industry DisruptorsA new generation of FinTech companies has fundamentally altered the competitive landscape and will continue to do so.Their success comes not from a single piece of revolutionary technology, but from applying existing technologies to solve a specific customer problem with a radically better user experience. In payments, Square democratized card acceptance for small businesses, while Stripe made it radically simple for developers to handle online payments. In lending, Klarna popularized the “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) model, reducing checkout friction for online shoppers.In investing, Robinhood eliminated a significant barrier to entry with its commission-free trading model. The common thread is a relentless focus on a customer pain point.

The Incumbent’s Dilemma: Deconstructing Barriers to Transformation

While the technological frontier of finance is expanding at an unprecedented pace, the ability of traditional institutions to navigate this new landscape is constrained by a powerful set of internal and external barriers.

  • The crippling effect of legacy systems: Like other industries, at the heart of the innovation challenge lies a technical reality: operations are built upon legacy core systems that have become the single greatest bottleneck to digital transformation. COBOL!!!! These systems, often comprising mainframes running decades-old code, are architecturally misaligned with the demands of the modern digital economy. They create integration barriers, data constraints, and slow development cycles, with up to 90% of the IT budget consumed simply by maintenance.

  • The culture conundrum: The financial services industry is, by its nature, focused on managing risk. However, a healthy culture of prudent risk management can curdle into a pervasive risk aversion that stifles experimentation. A 2025 survey of UK bank innovation leaders found that 71% believe a “risk-averse culture and red tape kill experimentation, making innovation impossible.”

  • The innovator’s trap: The very management practices that have made a company successful—listening to customers and investing in continuous product improvement—can also be the cause of its eventual failure. Incumbents are rationally driven to invest in “sustaining innovations” for their best customers, making it difficult to justify investing in “disruptive innovations” that are initially inferior and serve small or non-existent markets.

  • The human capital deficit: The industry faces a critical and widening talent and skills gap. A 2025 report highlighted a 35 percentage point gap between the demand for AI-related skills and the available talent. This scarcity is exacerbated by intense competition from global technology firms, high-growth SaaS companies, and FinTech startups.

  • The regulatory paradox: Regulation is often perceived as a significant barrier, imposing costs and complexity that can slow the pace of change. However, it can also be a potent catalyst. The introduction of PSD2 in Europe, for example, mandated Open Banking and “pushed fintech firms to create new services,” spurring the development of an entire new industry of companies built on new data access.

Blueprints for Success: Case Studies in Financial Innovation

Despite the barriers, pioneers are proving that transformation is possible. Their success stories provide a powerful blueprint.

  • AI in Action (QuickLoan, CapitalGains, MetroBank): Firms that are successfully implementing AI are not treating it as a science project, but as a tool to solve specific business problems. QuickLoan Financial adopted an AI model to automate its loan approval process, leading to a 40% decrease in loan processing time and a 25% improvement in detecting high-risk applications. CapitalGains Investments deployed an AI-driven platform for real-time market analysis, achieving a 20% increase in annual returns for its clients. MetroBank Group implemented an AI-powered analytics platform that led to a 30% increase in customer satisfaction scores and a 35% increase in the uptake of recommended financial products.

  • Blockchain’s Real-World Impact (we.trade, GSBN): Enterprise-grade blockchain platforms are now in production. we.trade, a joint venture by a consortium of 12 major European banks, has created a shared, immutable record for trade transactions, making international trade faster and more transparent for SMEs. Similarly, the Global Shipping Business Network (GSBN), a consortium of major shipping lines, developed an electronic Bill of Lading (eBL) solution on the blockchain, significantly reducing the time and cost associated with document handling and enhancing security.

  • The Incumbent Strikes Back (Goldman Sachs, DBS, Intesa): A number of established players have proven themselves capable of significant innovation. Marcus by Goldman Sachs is a prime example of a successful “Greenfield” approach, a standalone digital bank built from scratch. It attracted over five million customers and generated $1.2 billion in revenue by 2020. Similarly, DBS Bank launched digibank, a fully digital, mobile-first bank in India, acquiring 3.5 million customers. The Italian giant Intesa Sanpaolo created a “fintech within a bank,” building a digital supply chain financing platform that captured 90% of the market in Italy for its product category in less than two years.

The Innovator’s Playbook: 10 Actionable Strategies

The future of finance will be defined by those who are bold enough to act. This playbook outlines ten strategies for leaders to navigate the disruption and build a more intelligent, resilient, and customer-centric organization.

  • Follow a modernization roadmap: Overcoming the inertia of legacy systems is foundational. The most popular approach, adopted by 47% of banks, is Progressive or Incremental Migration. This strategy focuses on gradually replacing components of the legacy system or layering new capabilities on top, minimizing disruption. For incumbents entering a new market, the Greenfield build—creating a new, standalone digital bank—offers complete freedom from legacy constraints.

  • Architect an innovation culture: Technological transformation cannot succeed without a parallel transformation in culture. This requires active and visible leadership, the creation of protected, autonomous units for disruptive projects, and a conscious shift from viewing innovation as a threat to viewing it as a vital opportunity for future growth.

  • Master the API lifecycle: In the new financial ecosystem, APIs are strategic business products. This requires a disciplined approach, including a cross-functional “API Center of Excellence” to ensure strategic alignment, a “security by design” approach, and a clear plan for both direct and indirect monetization, following the gold-standard model of Mastercard’s Developers platform.

  • Win the war for talent: Addressing the human capital deficit is arguably the most critical challenge. This requires a multi-pronged strategy: invest in upskilling existing finance teams with in-house AI boot camps and data science certifications; strengthen partnerships with universities to build a future talent pipeline; and rethink compensation and career paths to compete directly for top-tier tech talent.

  • Navigate the future of risk: The risk management functions of the future must evolve to address emerging threats. This includes adopting a robust framework for responsible and ethical AI to mitigate algorithmic bias, and beginning the multi-year journey of cryptographic modernization to address the quantum threat, using the U.S. federal government’s 2035 deadline as a benchmark.

  • Think like a FinTech: Embrace an agile, customer-obsessed, and technology-first mindset. Your biggest threat is no longer the bank across the street, but the startup in a garage that is reimagining your business from the ground up.

  • Weaponize your data: Treat your data as your most valuable asset. Invest in modern data analytics and AI platforms to gain deep insights into customer behavior, personalize every product and interaction, and build a more predictive and robust risk management framework.

  • Architect a seamless digital experience:Break down the silos between your digital and physical channels. Design a unified customer journey that allows clients to move effortlessly between your mobile app, website, and physical branches.

  • Build a culture of bold experimentation: The future of finance is too complex to be predicted; it must be discovered through experimentation. Create a culture where it is safe to try new things, learn from failure, and rapidly iterate on new products and business models.

  • Challenge your assumptions relentlessly: The rules of finance are being rewritten. The most dangerous assumption you can make is that what made you successful in the past will make you successful in the future. Constantly question your own business models, processes, and beliefs.

The financial services industry is at a historic crossroads.The forces of digitization, decentralization, and data-driven intelligence are not just creating new efficiencies; they are forging an entirely new financial system.The leaders who thrive will be those who move beyond the fortress of traditional banking and embrace a new identity as agile, technology-driven architects of the future of money. The future of finance will not be built in the bank vaults of the past. It will be coded with intelligent algorithms, secured on decentralized ledgers, and experienced through seamless digital platforms, guided by a new generation of leaders who are not afraid to build a bolder, faster, and smarter financial world.

#9 Transportation, Automotive & Trucking

A decade from now, the automotive landscape will be dominated by companies that treated 2025’s reality check not as a crisis, but as the greatest competitive opportunity they ever witnessed!” – Futurist Jim Carroll

The year 2025 marks a fundamental “Great Recalibration” for the global automotive industry, where the trends related to electrification and autonomy have collided with economic, political, and consumer realities. And perhaps we have not seen an industry – concentrated in Detroit, Stuttgart, and Tokyo – throw away its future in such reckless fashion.Where are we at this point, and what’s the way forward? The once-unquestioned acceleration toward an all-electric, fully autonomous future has been interrupted by significant headwinds, particularly in Western markets. This has triggered a strategic divergence: legacy automakers seem to be giving up on the trend to once again concentrate on carbon vehicles, squeezing as much as they can out of a dying platform, while new, aggressive Asian automakers take over a future based on EVs.Blunt, but reality perhaps!Let’s dig in!

The Landscape:
10 Trends Redefining Auto & Transportation

I’ve done a lot of keynotes in, around, and about the automotive, trucking, and transportation sector over the years, sharing my thoughts on the major trends that would define the future of the industry. I went back into 20 years’ worth of posts and keynotes, and these are the major trends I’ve observed:

  • The acceleration to electric. The shift from internal combustion engines (ICE) to electric vehicles (EVs) is a complete re-architecting of the vehicle, supply chains, and the energy infrastructure that supports it.

  • The dawn of the autonomous era.Self-driving technology is moving from R&D labs to our highways and job sites, promising to revolutionize logistics and improve safety.

  • The vehicle is a software platform. The most valuable part of a modern vehicle is its code. Vehicles are becoming upgradeable, intelligent platforms on wheels, enabling new business models based on over-the-air (OTA) software updates and subscription services.

  • Hyper-connectivity & the data explosion. Every new vehicle is a sophisticated, rolling data center, generating gigabytes of information every hour that can fuel new services like predictive maintenance and usage-based insurance.

  • The reinvention of the cabin experience. As driving becomes automated, the interior of the vehicle is transforming from a cockpit into a mobile living room or office, creating a new battleground for innovation in passenger experiences.

  • The blurring of industries. The traditional automotive industry is converging with the technology sector, forcing incumbent automakers to think and operate like tech companies.

  • The shift to “mobility-as-a-service” (MaaS). The next generation is showing a declining interest in car ownership, creating a shift to a service-based model where consumers subscribe to a range of mobility options.

  • The transformation of retail and maintenance. The traditional dealership and repair shop model is being disrupted by direct-to-consumer sales, mobile service fleets, and predictive maintenance.

  • The great decoupling & supply chain resilience. The recent chip shortage was a brutal lesson in the fragility of the global automotive supply chain, forcing a strategic shift toward more resilient and regionalized supply networks.

  • The sustainability imperative. From manufacturing processes to end-of-life recycling, there is a massive new focus on sustainability, driving innovation in lightweight materials and circular economy models for battery recycling.

And, well, then came 2025.

The 2025 Reality Check: Deconstructing the Hype, As the Culture Wars Kick In!

The narrative of an imminent, seamless transition to an electric and autonomous future has been decisively fractured in 2025. The year represents a market-wide reckoning, where all of the trends above have met the friction of real-world economics, infrastructure limitations, and political volatility.Perhaps the biggest issue is how EVs have become a part of the culture wars – suddenly, to cling to one’s diesel-belching heavy-duty pickup truck is seen as an oath of allegiance, a pledge to potential greatness, and a testament to ultimate failure.What happened? Where does it go from here?The EV Slowdown: Analyzing the Pushback in Western MarketsSo, is the deceleration in EV sales growth across the United States and Europe an outright rejection of electrification?Hard to say. In one way, it’s a pretty rational market response. High upfront costs, persistent public charging infrastructure challenges, a widespread belief that the range-anxiety issue will never be solved (even though this has proven to be a canard), and wild, significant policy whiplash have collectively created a pretty vast chasm between the early-adopter segment nd the rest of the population. A 2025 survey by AAA reveals a stark shift: only 16% of US adults now report being “likely” to purchase a fully electric vehicle, the lowest level since 2019. The primary barriers? The high purchase price (59%), potential for costly battery repairs (62%), and lack of convenient public charging (56%).These headwinds are manifesting in classic economic signals. As of May 2025, the inventory of new EVs on dealer lots has swelled to an average of 111 days’ supply. In response, automakers have aggressively increased incentives to an average of $8,226 per vehicle.This slowdown, though, is a distinctly Western phenomenon. In stark contrast, China’s EV market continues its relentless expansion, accounting for nearly 50% of the total car market in some months, driven by consistent government support. It’s kind of funny – virtually everyone I speak to these days has concluded that Tesla, the vanguard of the Western e-vehicle revolution, has clearly lost the future to BYD, the upstart Chinese automotive company!Autonomy’s Long Road Ahead: From Moonshot to Commercial RealityWhat about self-driving cars? I’ve gone from being a believer to being a skeptic, despite having a Tesla Model 3, which is actually pretty good at achieving this magical feat.It seems most others in the industry have given up on the idea, too.The vision of ubiquitous Level 4 and 5 personal autonomous vehicles has been deferred indefinitely, colliding with intractable challenges in technology, regulation, and cost. In response, the industry’s focus has pragmatically pivoted toward narrower, more commercially viable applications.Autonomous systems continue to struggle with “edge cases”—unpredictable real-world scenarios that human drivers navigate with common sense. Simply put, they have to work 99.999999% of the time correctly, and this might be near impossible to achieve. (Tesla fanboys often descend upon such statements with the rabid ferocity of a feral dog in search of meat.) This is reflected in sober forecasts: a 2025 white paper from the World Economic Forum concludes that Level 2/2+ systems will dominate the personal vehicle market for the next decade, with only around 4% of new cars sold in 2035 featuring Level 4 capabilities. That’s a pretty big pullback!In the face of these challenges, the path to commercialization has fractured, with venture capital and iconoclasts chasing new models:

  • Robotaxis: Companies like Waymo have proven the technical feasibility of ‘level 4’ robotaxis in geofenced urban areas, but scaling these services is proving to be a slow and capital-intensive process. This is Elon’s big bet, and it is happening in the context of his personal meltdown and sanity collapse.

  • Autonomous Trucking (Level 4 Logistics):: This segment is emerging as the most promising near-term application. It directly addresses the chronic shortage of long-haul truck drivers. Companies like Aurora Innovation are already deploying autonomous Class 8 trucks on specific highway corridors in a “hub-to-hub” model.

  • Personal Autonomous Vehicles (Level 3/4): Adoption of Level 3 systems, such as Mercedes-Benz’s DRIVE PILOT, remains a niche luxury feature, constrained by high costs and strict operational limitations.

The Big Issue: The New Competitive Arena: Incumbents vs. Insurgents

These issues are playing out in the context of the fact that it seems that much of the Western auto industry is ceding the future to Asia – and in particular, China.The fact is, this market recalibration of 2025 has redrawn the global automotive battlefield. The slowdown in Western markets has created a strategic opening that a new generation of aggressive, vertically integrated automakers from Asia is exploiting with remarkable speed.The Eastern Ascendancy: A Multi-Front Assault:Automakers from China, Vietnam, and India are emerging as formidable global competitors.They are doing so by leveraging deep vertical integration, strong government backing, rapid product development cycles, and a flexible strategy embracing pure electric vehicles and hybrids. They are now attacking every legacy automaker on price, technology, and speed.BYD stands as the primary example, and it seems to me that everyone knows how fast they are moving, how sophisticated their cars are, and how inexpensive they can be compared to Western alternatives. And they are playing a global game – for example, to circumvent tariffs, BYD is investing heavily in local production, with new plants under construction in Hungary and Turkey.What’s the forecast to 2035? The simple fact is, the trajectory of companies like BYD points toward a significant reshaping of the global automotive landscape. By 2035, it is highly probable that Chinese brands, led by BYD, will have secured a dominant market share not only within the electrified Chinese market (projected to be 88% EV) but also across high-growth emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. This cuts off future revenue and growth opportunities for legacy companies in ways never before seen.Their structural cost advantages and speed-to-market will allow them to capture the mainstream, affordable EV segment that Western automakers are struggling to profitably serve. In Europe, by establishing local manufacturing, they will largely neutralize tariff barriers and compete as domestic players, potentially capturing 15-20% of the total market. The result will be a new global auto industry, where a handful of vertically integrated Chinese giants compete directly with the consolidated Western and Japanese incumbents, permanently ending the era of Detroit, German, and Japanese dominance.The Incumbent’s Dilemma: Pivots, Platforms, and Pragmatism:Confronted with the triple threat of slowing EV demand, immense capital pressure, and agile new competitors, legacy automakers are executing a strategic retreat from their aggressive, all-in electrification timelines. And the fact is, the retreat is not pretty!

  • America’s Hybrid Hedge: Ford’s “Model e” EV division is projected to lose $5.5 billion in a single year, while its hybrid sales are profitable and surging. In response, Ford has delayed its large electric SUV from 2025 to 2027 and announced it will offer hybrid powertrains across its entire lineup.

  • Germany’s Engineering Reckoning: Volkswagen Group’s attempt to create a unified software stack through its Cariad subsidiary became a multi-billion-dollar debacle, racking up over $7.5 billion in operating losses while delivering buggy products that caused multi-year delays for critical EVs like the Porsche Macan EV. The crisis culminated in a humiliating reversal: a $5 billion partnership with American EV startup Rivian to provide the software architecture VW could not build itself.

  • Japan’s “Multi-Pathway” Vindication: The market turmoil has largely vindicated the cautious, “multi-pathway” strategy of Japanese automakers. While Toyota’s first major global BEV, the bZ4X, was a commercial failure, its core hybrid business is thriving, delivering the profits that are funding a more methodical development of next-generation electric vehicles.

They are trying to fight back in the face of a retreat, and let’s just say, it’s an interesting thing to be watching!

Facing the Headwinds: Foundational Barriers to Transformation

So, where does all this leave things in terms of the trends impacting the future of the industry? The fact is, the strategic struggles of individual automakers are symptoms of deeper, systemic barriers that are impeding the industry’s transformation.

  • From Metal Benders to Coders: The Human Capital Crisis: The industry’s most significant barrier is a severe and widening skills gap. The core skills of the 20th century—mechanical engineering and traditional manufacturing—are being supplanted by an urgent need for software engineers, battery chemists, AI specialists, and data scientists. The industry is struggling to attract this talent away from the tech sector. The talent crisis extends to retail, where car dealerships face notoriously high employee turnover rates—as high as 67% for sales consultants.

  • The Vehicle as a Service: A Business Model in Search of a Market: The vision of transforming the vehicle into a recurring revenue platform through software subscriptions is colliding with a wall of consumer resistance. A 2025 survey revealed a sharp decline in consumers’ willingness to pay for connected car services, dropping from 86% in 2024 to just 68% in 2025. The conflict intensifies when automakers attempt to charge recurring fees for hardware features already present in the vehicle, a practice widely perceived as “rent-seeking.”

  • Geopolitics and Supply Chains: The New Rules of Manufacturing: The era of hyper-optimized, just-in-time global supply chains is over. It has been replaced by a new paradigm that prioritizes resilience and regionalization. The imposition of tariffs of up to 100-200% on Chinese-made vehicles by the United States is a seismic event. In response, Western governments are deploying massive industrial policy initiatives like the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to counter dependency and build local battery supply chains.

The Innovator’s Playbook: 10 Actionable Strategies

So, where to from here?In an industry subjected to wild volatility, great uncertainty, and staggering rates of speed, the winners in this turbulent decade will not be those with the most aggressive EV timelines, but those that demonstrate the greatest strategic agility and capital discipline. This will involve those who:

  • Embrace strategic flexibility The primary lesson of the 2025 recalibration is that a rigid, one-size-fits-all electrification strategy is a recipe for failure. Leaders must abandon fixed timelines and develop flexible vehicle platforms capable of accommodating multiple powertrain types—BEV, PHEV, and advanced hybrid—to meet diverging regional demands and prioritize profitability.

  • Win the software war: The existential threat to legacy automakers is not electrification; they struggle to become true software companies. Automakers must move decisively to bring the development of the core vehicle operating system in-house, treating it as a strategic competency on par with engine development. If in-house efforts prove insufficient, strategic partnerships with proven software players must be pursued proactively.

  • Master capital allocation (the “profitability first” principle). The combined transition requires a multi-trillion-dollar capital investment. Disciplined capital allocation is paramount. Leaders must be ruthless in their decision-making, divesting non-core assets and prioritizing investments in technologies with a clear, near-term path to profitability, such as advanced ADAS and next-generation hybrids.

  • Re-architect for a fractured world: The automotive world is fracturing into distinct geopolitical and economic blocs. Supply chains must be proactively re-architected for resilience rather than pure cost optimization. This requires investing in regionalized manufacturing footprints and diversifying supplier bases for critical components like batteries and semiconductors.

  • Rebuild the customer value proposition: The clumsy attempts to monetize the software-defined vehicle through unpopular subscription models have damaged trust. Automakers must rethink their approach to “Vehicle-as-a-Service” because it isn’t working! The focus must shift to creating subscription services that add tangible, ongoing value for the customer—such as enhanced connectivity, premium content, and predictive services.

When you think about it, the automotive and transportation industries are in the midst of a once-in-a-century metamorphosis.The shift to an electric, autonomous, and connected future is not an incremental change; it is a fundamental reboot of the entire operating system of mobility. The coming decade will not be a simple race to a predetermined future, but a complex, multi-front battle defined by regional market fragmentation and the existential challenge of transforming century-old industrial giants into agile, software-driven technology companies.The leaders who thrive will be those who move beyond the legacy of the 20th century and embrace a new identity, guided by strategic agility, capital discipline, and organizational resilience.

Summary - Moving Forward

“The way forward is not to wait for tomorrow, but to create it today.” – Futurist Jim Carroll

In this series, I covered major trends in 9 major industries, taking a look at what will define those industries, the path forward and the barriers in the way. You’ll find the entire series at forward.jimcarroll.com. I also tried to outline a series of bold actions that could be pursued in each industry for those eager to find a way forward.What’s the overall picture? As I noted in the introduction, the future is no longer a distant destination but a “high-speed operating system we must run on and align to every single day”. I’ve also indicated that the instinct to “hunker down and wait it out” during volatility is a trap; clarity must be created through action.What I’ve tried to do is provide a clear, action-oriented guide for leaders in any sector to navigate the present chaos and thrive.So how do I wrap it up? Let’s take apart the universal forces of disruption that surrounds all nine industries and the common theme across those trends. There are 3 big overriding themes.

1. The Acceleration of Intelligence and Time

This theme is the speed at which everything is now operating. Time itself is collapsing. That’s a consistent message across all industries, and it’s being driven by several common core trends:

  • AI and Data as the New Engine: Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Big Data are shifting every sector from reactive/historical models to predictive/real-time intelligence. This includes AI-driven diagnostics in healthcare, fraud detection in insurance, and demand forecasting in retail.

  • Velocity of Science and Innovation: Medical knowledge is doubling in months, not years. Manufacturing product lifecycles are collapsing, demanding the “velocity of continuous reinvention”. New technologies are arriving faster in agriculture and retail, requiring that people in those industries learn to innovate at speed.

  • The Connected Ecosystem (IoT): Hyper-connectivity and the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) transform physical assets (factories, farms, vehicles, medical devices) into rolling data centers that enable real-time visibility and control.

Here’s the key trend underling the trend – over time, it’s only going to get faster!

2. The Reinvention of Physical Reality and Value Chains

The second underlying trends involves a change in how products and services are physically created, delivered, and consumed.

  • Personalization at Scale: Mass production is yielding to Mass Customization. This is seen in manufacturing (make-to-order), food production (vertical farming), and healthcare (personalized treatment plans).

  • Virtualization of Assets: Technologies like Digital Twins create virtual replicas of factories, products, and buildings to act as risk-free testing environments for lifelong management. Healthcare is pivoting to the Virtualization of Care with connected devices extending the hospital’s reach into the home.

  • End-to-End Robotics and Automation: Robotics and autonomous systems are moving beyond the factory floor to the farm (driverless tractors), the job site (brick-laying robots), and the customer (autonomous last-mile delivery).

3. The Empowerment of the Customer and Planet

The third involves subtle changes that shift everything to a new focus:

  • The Ascendant Customer: Consumers (especially Millennials and Gen Z) are now digital-native, expecting Amazon/Netflix-level convenience, and demanding transparency, sustainability, and value alignment from brands. They have become active participants (prosumers) in their energy, financial, and health care.

  • The Circular Economy: The focus is moving beyond net-zero to Climate-Positive Tech. New paradigms eliminate waste through resale, rental, repair, and recycling models. Construction and manufacturing are adopting “design for deconstruction” to reuse materials.

  • New Risk and Resilience: Geopolitical risk is replacing cost as the primary driver for supply chains. The move is from “just-in-time” to “just-in-case” operations through reshoring and regionalization. Insurers are moving from risk transfer to holistic risk architecture and prevention.

The Common Barriers to Transformation

It should come as no surprise that there are also common barriers across all the industries. I identified that in the intro – I now see that an organizational “barbell structure” in place: large firms move fast, but small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) risk being left behind. The barriers are structural and cultural, not just technological:

  • Legacy Drag Anchor: Decades-old, monolithic legacy IT systems (e.g., mainframes running COBOL) are operationally inflexible and act as the single greatest bottleneck to digital transformation. They consume a staggering 58-90% of the IT budget for maintenance alone across industries.

  • Human Capital Crisis: There is a severe and widening skills gap. The new demand is for data science, AI specialists, software engineers, and robotics expertise, which the industry struggles to attract from the tech sector.

  • Cultural Risk Aversion: Traditional industries are notoriously risk-averse, with a deeply ingrained cultural inertia that stifles experimentation. This often leads to a state of “aggressive indecision” where companies delay necessary investments.

  • Financial & Capital Constraints: High upfront capital costs for advanced machinery and uncertain long-term Return on Investment (ROI) is the principal reason for non-adoption by many organizations with tight margins.

The Way Forward

Last but not least, but there are also common themes on ‘the way forward.”1. Align to tomorrow before anything else!Quite simply, you need to be ready to move forward to actually begin to move forward.

  • Adopt a “Future-Positive” Mindset: Reject pessimism and sentimentality; the smartest strategy is to reinforce and build while others retreat. View volatility as an opportunity.

  • Architect an Innovation Culture: Lead from the top by visibly dedicating time to innovation and empowerment. Create a “safe to fail” environment where intelligent failures are celebrated, not punished.

  • Empower the Frontline: Use an “upside-down innovation” model by empowering frontline staff and customers (the connected patient, the agent, the field crew) as a primary source of new ideas and unmet needs.

2. Learn to Execute with Agility and DataBe faster! Learn to think, act and innovate faster. Some of these might seem to be overly complex, but it’s a necessary step.

  • De-Risk the Technology Leap: Instead of large, high-risk overhauls, break transformation into manageable, phased steps. Prioritize a digital roadmap that targets technology to solve a specific, high-ROI business challenge first (e.g., fraud, downtime, scrap rates).

  • Master Data First: Recognize that your data is your most valuable asset. Focus on implementing modern platforms (like ERP or cloud-based systems) to create a single source of truth before buying data-generating equipment.

  • Embrace “as-a-Service” Models: Shift your mindset from ownership to access to de-risk high capital cost. Explore leasing, “AgTech-as-a-Service,” or “Energy-as-a-Service” (EaaS) to gain the benefits of advanced technology without the prohibitive upfront investment.

3. Build the Future-Ready EcosystemFinally, make sure you’ve got the right skills and capabilities in place or at least accessible.

  • Win the War for Talent: Address the human capital crisis with a multi-pronged strategy. Invest heavily in upskilling your existing workforce with formal training in data science and AI, and fundamentally rethink recruitment to attract and hire technology professionals you can teach your industry to.

  • Start Forging Strategic Partnerships: Recognize that the complexity of the modern world is too great to master alone. Build collaborative ecosystems by partnering with InsurTechs, FinTechs, local universities, and academic institutions to access capital, expertise, and a pipeline of new talent.

  • Learn to be a “Time Traveller”: Manage the crisis today, but relentlessly strategize and build for tomorrow. Never stop questioning your business models, as the most dangerous assumption is that what made you successful in the past will make you successful in the future.